One Week Until BAFTA Nominations: Here’s What Could Happen

We’re just one week away from the announcement of the nominees for the 69th British Academy Film Awards, more commonly known as the BAFTAs, and I have what I think are the most likely names you’ll here. BAFTA has been pretty closely aligned with the Oscars now for quite a while but they do throw a curveball once in a while. Sometimes it’s a category switch for an actor (like Steve Carell being nominated in Supporting Actor for Foxcatcher last year) or a British film making a bigger splash here than at the Oscars; The Theory of Everything made the Best Film top 5 as well as Best Director and took home the Adapted Screenplay prize.

What could we see this year that might sit outside of the Oscar table? I’m not quite gutsy enough to predict Room for a Best Film nomination but it could show up. As an Irish/Canadian production it will have a foundation of support on that side of the pond that could vault it into top 5 territory. But then what about the Irish film Brooklyn? I’m doubtful of its wider success here because it simply hasn’t performed that well outside of Best Actress contender Saoirse Ronan. Ex Machina has made a play this year for awards attention, scooping up lots of First Film/Best New Filmmaker awards for Alex Garland and a huge haul for Alicia Vikander in Supporting Actress. This could be a very interesting scenario and one I’m currently predicting; that Vikander will be double nominated in Supporting for both Ex Machina (where she’s Golden Globe nominated) and The Danish Girl (where she’s nominated from the Screen Actors Guild). She could also be pushed into Lead for The Danish Girl and still get both nominations, just as she was at the Globes. Also a very possible push into Lead could be Carol‘s Rooney Mara and Room‘s Jacob Tremblay. I’ve played it conservative with those two, keeping them in supporting, but it would absolutely not surprise me to see them show up in lead. If either of those two women end up in lead, Jennifer Lawrence can probably hold off on booking a ticket to London for next month.

My one ‘out on a limb’ prediction is a big one; Beasts of No Nation for Best Film. That’s a nomination that could easily go to Room or Brooklyn or Bridge of Spies or The Revenant. Maybe I’m putting too much stock in the film’s Screen Actors Guild Best Cast nomination or Idris Elba but then, he’s never been BAFTA nominated at all. Call it my one ‘no guts, no glory’ prediction.

I expect Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian and The Revenant to have the big nomination hauls next week. They should dominate the techs in a way that traditional dramas won’t be able to but Spotlight, Carol and Room should still all perform strongly. I do wonder if we could see a strange comeback for dead Oscar bait like Suffragette or Youth but it seems doubtful. Even Outstanding British Film doesn’t seem to have room for Suffragette, especially with the huge awards success The Lobster has recently had. That’s a film that could break through into some major categories. Right now I have it in Original Screenplay but if either Vikander or Mara (or both) get nominated in lead then watch out for Olivia Colman to get a nomination in Supporting Actress.

Here are my predictions for the top awards (including the voted on by the public Rising Star Award) for the 69th British Academy Film Awards:

Best Film
Beasts of No Nation
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Spotlight

Best Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Leading Actor
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Leading Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara, Carol
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Lobster
Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Outstanding British Film
45 Years
Amy
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
The Lobster

Best Documentary
Amy
The Look of Silence
Meru
A Syrian Love Story
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Film Not in the English Language
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Phoenix
Son of Saul
Timbuktu

Best Animated Film
Anomalisa
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie

BAFTA Rising Star Award
John Boyega
Emory Cohen
Cara Delevingne
Taron Egerton
Daisy Ridley

The nominations for the 69th BAFTAs will be Friday, January 8th (7:35am GMT) and the awards show will take place on Sunday, February 14th.

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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