32nd SAG Actor Awards Nomination Predictions – Motion Picture
The newly named Actor Awards Presented by SAG-AFTRA, formerly the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, will announce their nominations tomorrow and we could some very interesting inclusions as well as some shocking snubs.
The industry nominations and awards are a bit topsy turvy this year, with Critics Choice last weekend and Golden Globes next weekend, and with the voting deadlines not providing much chance of traditional rubber stamping. In years prior, when SAG announced in the first week of December (like Critics Choice and the Golden Globes) that often found late releases behind in visibility to the 2500 randomly chosen members of the SAG nom comm and inevitably missing in favor of some esoteric and earlier releases; think Naomi Watts in St. Vincent and Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back. Netflix was also a big benefactor of SAG success as the streamer has been the best at getting their films in front of voters.
For SAG, the possibilities I’m most interested in, or concerned about maybe, is where Sentimental Value will land. While hugely popular with both CCA and the Globes for nominations, the SAG nom comm can be a bit tricky. I feel like it’s in for a few categories and just outside for several others. I’m splitting the difference for it in that regard, with Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård in but missing for Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Cast. But any of those can happen.
I think there are a few possible ‘snubs’ that could happen that a few months ago we wouldn’t have dared to call. One is Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good. While the first film cleaned up here last year (for nominations), the sequel has been struggling to match the first’s numbers at nearly every turn. Cynthia Erivo, who missed Critics Choice in a field of six, is also potentially in danger. The other name that feels on the cusp is Paul Mescal for Hamnet. While he and the film have most maxed out their nomination potential with CCA and the Globes, a close look at regional critics, while not the same as SAG, shows that he has missed several nominations. What was once a lock now seems tenuous.
Weapons is a film that will definitely get Amy Madigan in but I’m going out on a bit of a limb and putting it in the top category as well, over the likes of Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value and Wicked: For Good. Even Train Dreams could be a surprise entry here.
I’m not sure how many of our readers subscribe to the ‘alphabet theory’ for SAG–the theory that voters are so lazy they’ll check names that fall under the first half of the alphabet until they get to five–you might see that tomorrow in a few categories. Lead Actor in my estimation will likely not have a name that goes past J. Supporting Actress could see Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’zion benefit from being at the top of a list for a film that is already locked for at least one other nomination (Timothée Chalamet bringing in the surprise nominee in this category two years in a row just kind of makes sense) and Emily Blunt’s Golden Globe nomination, although she is a longtime favorite there, raised my eyebrow a bit.
The nominations for the 32nd SAG Actor Awards will be revealed on January 7 at 10am PT by Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) and Connor Storrie (Heated Rivalry). Here are my predictions.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Weapons
Spoilers: Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Spoilers: George Clooney, Jay Kelly; Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Spoilers: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good; Julia Garner, Weapons; Emma Stone, Bugonia
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Spoilers: Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Spoilers: Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man; Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Ballerina
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Spoilers: Warfare, Wicked: For Good
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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