Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Cast in a Motion Picture

For me, this race is for the Screen Actors Guild Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture is between Belfast and The Power of the Dog. Both have the potential to tie the all-time record of five nominations for a single film, a feat that only three films have met: Chicago, Doubt, Shakespeare in Love (the only won to win the top award).

Each film stands a good shot at earning four individual SAG nominations as well as one for their cast. But this is also where it gets tricky because we’ve also seen future Best Picture winners snubbed here while still earning individual nominations. 2017’s The Shape of Water and 2018’s Green Book broke the long-running streak that had held since the inception of this award in 1995, missing SAG Cast and still winning Best Picture. Many point to each of those films having smaller, core lineups that the nominating committee simply didn’t feel warranted a cast nomination in the breadth and sense of the word (see 2016’s La La Land, too).

This is a crucial element in SAG voting for this category because the Screen Actors Guild bylaws state that you can only receive a nomination as a cast member if you appear in the main or closing credits with single title billing. It’s one of the archaic rules that’s never been changed in 28 years of the Screen Actors Guild and was, ironically, meant to protect the individual actor.

From the official SAG rules:

2. CAST ELIGIBILITY: Motion Picture Casts shall be represented by those actors with single-card billing in the main titles, wherever those titles appear. In cases of special, unusual or non-billing, eligibility shall be at the sole discretion of the Awards Committee.

“A Cast in a Motion Picture” includes all actors whose names appear in the cast credits of the final release print. Members of the cast who are not single-card billed but are credited in the cast crawl of the motion picture announced as the recipient of the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture shall each receive a certificate.

Here are some fun but important stats to consider when thinking about this category and its past.

The Full Monty, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and Parasite are the only winners not to be nominated in any other category.

Gosford Park has the largest winning cast (20 credited actors).

Bobby has the largest nominated cast (24 credited actors).

Sideways has the smallest winning cast (4 credited actors).

Million Dollar Baby and Beasts of No Nation have the smallest nominated cast (3 credited actors).

Black Panther is the first superhero film to win the award.

Parasite is the first non-English language film to win the award.

Braveheart, The Shape of Water, Green Book, and Nomadland are the only films not to be nominated for the award and still go on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Fourteen nominated films that earned a Cast nomination but were not nominated in any other category:

• 3:10 to Yuma
• Bobby
• Crazy Rich Asians
• The Full Monty
• Get Shorty
• Hairspray
• How to Make an American Quilt
• Hustle & Flow
• In America
• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• Midnight in Paris
• My Big Fat Greek Wedding
• Parasite
• Straight Outta Compton

Between 2009 and 2019, three films earned three individual SAG nominations and still missed out on a cast nomination: 2009’s Up in the Air, 2018’s The Favourite and 2019’s Marriage Story.

The Full Monty, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and Parasite are the only winners not to be nominated in any other category.

A film having a small credited cast isn’t always a bad thing, as Beasts of No Nation, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways show, but it’s certainly the exception rather than the rule. This year, of the top contenders, Being the Ricardos has only four credited actors eligible here under the SAG rules: Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem, J.K. Simmons and Nina Arianda. That means the supporting work of Alia Shawkat, Tony Hale, Jake Lacy, Linda Lavin and more would not receive a nomination if the film gets in.

Mass has been collecting ensemble critics’ wins left and right and Bleecker Street has been working hard to make sure the film is seen and noticed. Along with the film’s 10 critics’ wins is the Robert Altman Award from the Independent Spirit Awards. Like Being the Ricardos, there are only four listed cast members for Mass: REed Birney, Ann Dowd, Jason Isaacs and Martha Plimpton.

On the other side, having a large cast can be a huge benefit. This year, Don’t Look Up (14) and Licorice Pizza (21) hit the highest marks. While Don’t Look Up, with its Oscar-heavy ensemble cast, makes sense here it’s Licorice Pizza that is a surprise. The film feels very much like a two-hander, like La La Land did, with very little in the realm of subplots and supporting character storylines and arcs.

Which brings us back to Belfast and The Power of the Dog. Belfast lists six credited actors: Caitríona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Jude Hill, Ciarán Hinds and Colin Morgan with most of them in contention for individual recognition. The Power of the Dog seems like there’s really just four main players: Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee but the credited list also included Keith Carradine, Frances Conroy, Genevieve Lemon and Thomas McKenzie rounding out the cast. Both films could make it in but one could just as easily miss for a film that lands no individual nominations like The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall or even Don’t Look Up.

This is all before we even get into the screener issue that always disrupts the SAG nominating committee of 200-2500 random members. Studios send out either digital or physical copies of their films, or both in many cases, to the voting members. Unlike many other groups, they have a full month to watch films and vote on their nominees and many send those screeners on day one (like Mass) while others inexplicably wait until many voters have possibly already submitted their ballots. 20th Century Studios didn’t send voters a screener for West Side Story until well after the Christmas holiday (and even then only a digital copy), putting that film’s chances – and supporting actress frontrunner Ariana DeBose – at risk. The same thing happened in 2018 when voters didn’t get If Beale Street Could Talk in time and Regina King did not receive a nomination despite being the overwhelming critics’ favorite at the time. It ultimately didn’t matter as King triumphed at the Oscars anyway but that was the exception, not the rule. Generally speaking, you need an individual nomination here first if you want to win the Oscar.

Last year, two SAG Cast nominees missed a Best Picture Oscar nomination: Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami.

Here are my predictions for the Screen Actors Guild Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Nominations will be announced on January 12 beginning at 6:50am PT on Instagram Live by Rosario Dawson and Vanessa Hudgens.

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• The Harder They Fall
• King Richard

Main Spoiler: The Power of the Dog

Other possibilities: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch; Licorice Pizza; Mass; tick, tick…BOOM!; West Side Story

While we’re here, my predictions for Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture:

• Dune
• The Harder They Fall
• The Matrix Resurrections
• No Time to Die
• Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spoilers: The Last Duel, The Tomorrow War

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture