Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Preview and Predictions (TV)

Erik Anderson January 29, 2016

**2016 Screen Actors Guild Award Predictions**

The television side of the Screen Actors Guild awards, much like the Golden Globes, often tends to step outside more than their film counterparts. With the film side there are months of critics awards, build up and momentum leading to the Emerald City of awards, The Oscars. That’s less so for the TV awards, which vary from being based on a calendar year (like the Globes and SAG) or a television season calendar (like the Emmys).

Stranger still, the Screen Actors Guild still don’t have a supporting category for their Series or TV Movie/Miniseries categories so we often get supporting players bumped up to the main category. The Golden Globes also lump supporting players from Series, TV Movie and Miniseries together and it’s high time both expanded those categories.

The Screen Actors Guild also recently merged with AFTRA (American Federation of Television and Radio Artists), which adds announcers, broadcast journalists, dancers, DJs, news writers, news editors, program hosts, puppeteers, recording artists, singers, stunt performers, voiceover artists and other media professionals to the mix of actors, totalling a voting body of about 160,000 – the largest of any in the entertainment industry.

With the Emmy Awards in September and the Golden Globes just two weeks ago, there will inevitably be some crossover but often not as much as you’d think. SAG, being the huge body that it is, can often be more populist. I am expecting a fierce battle in Male Actor in a Drama Series between Golden Globe and Emmy winner Jon Hamm (his first there in 8 tries) and Rami Malek in Mr. Robot. Hamm has never won an individual SAG for Mad Men and I feel like he will continue his winning streak for the show’s final season here. But ‘It’ boy Malek is on one of the year’s hottest new shows (it won the Globe for Drama Series) and it could be close.

Female Actor in a Drama Series will probably go to SAG winner Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder). Even though she just won here last year she should be able to triumph here again. The Golden Globe winner this year in this category, Empire‘s Taraji P. Henson, isn’t even nominated. But, it’s still could be anyone’s game, with previous winners here Claire Danes (2013) or Maggie Smith (who won here in 2014), pulling off a win.

The Ensemble win seems really open. Downton Abbey just won this last year, inexplicably (SAG really loves this show), but I’m seeing either Game of Thrones (this year’s Emmy winner for Drama Series) or Mad Men‘s final season getting the top prize. I’ll put my cards in the Game of Thrones pile.

On the comedy side I think Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent) takes this in a walk. Female Actor is really competitive though but I’ll give the edge to Emmy winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep). But, Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black) is the reigning champ, and for a supporting role.

Orange is the New Black was last year’s Ensemble winner and this year we have Key & Peele nominated…for just two actors. It kind of mirrors the film side where Beasts of No Nation received a Cast nomination for just three performers. I’m looking at Transparent or Veep to take this, leaning to Transparent.

The TV Movie/Miniseries section is kind of an hilarious mess, but in a good way. On the Female Actor side is Kristen Wiig’s soap parody, The Spoils Before Dying is going up against Nicole Kidman’s film-to-TV flop Grace of Monaco and Susan Sarandon’s supporting role in The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe. Ultimately it will probably go to the most traditional role and performance and Bessie‘s Queen Latifah will win. But my God, what I would give for Kidman to win her first SAG for this role and this performance and this film. On the Male Actor side we have two men with nominations on the film side as well – Mark Rylance and Idris Elba. I’m going with Elba, who has three nominations total going in.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC) – Prediction
RAMI MALEK / Elliot – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
BOB ODENKIRK / Jimmy McGill – “BETTER CALL SAUL” (AMC)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC) – Prediction
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (Masterpiece/PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX Networks)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon) – Prediction

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO) – Prediction
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

IDRIS ELBA / DCI John Luther – “LUTHER” (BBC America) – Prediction
BEN KINGSLEY / Grand Vizier Ay – “TUT” (Spike)
RAY LIOTTA / Lorca/Tom Mitchell – “TEXAS RISING” (History)
BILL MURRAY / Himself – “A VERY MURRAY CHRISTMAS” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Thomas Cromwell – “WOLF HALL” (Masterpiece/PBS)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

NICOLE KIDMAN / Grace – “GRACE OF MONACO” (Lifetime)
QUEEN LATIFAH / Bessie Smith – “BESSIE” (HBO) – Prediction
CHRISTINA RICCI / Lizzie Borden – “THE LIZZIE BORDEN CHRONICLES” (Lifetime)
SUSAN SARANDON / Gladys Mortenson – “THE SECRET LIFE OF MARILYN MONROE” (Lifetime)
KRISTEN WIIG / Delores DeWinter – “THE SPOILS BEFORE DYING” (IFC)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

DOWNTON ABBEY (Masterpiece/PBS)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO) – Prediction
HOMELAND (Showtime)
HOUSE OF CARDS (Netflix)
MAD MEN (AMC)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
KEY & PEELE (Comedy Central)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK (Netflix)
TRANSPARENT (Amazon) – Prediction
VEEP (HBO)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series

THE BLACKLIST (NBC)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO) – Prediction
HOMELAND” (Showtime)
MARVEL’S DAREDEVIL (Netflix)
THE WALKING DEAD (AMC)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.