2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (November)
As we head into the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S., it also means we’re on the precipice of critics groups beginning to announce nominations and winners in early December. Several already have, like the Gothams, British Independent Film Awards and the European Academy. It’s there that we draw from for November predictions with who has what and what it means this early.
Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Venice Volpi Cup winner Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) all earned lead performance nominations at the Gothams (a gender-neutral category of 10) while Cannes Best Actress winner Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) grabbed an EFA alongside Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door). Ronan and Jean-Baptiste also grabbed BIFA nods. Angelina Jolie (Maria) hasn’t grabbed a competitive nomination yet but she’ll be feted by the Gothams, Palm Springs and Santa Barbara in their juried spotlights and tributes.
Reviews for Wicked came in strong and while it seems that supporting actress contender Ariana Grande landed the slightly better notices, previous Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) finds a spot in this month’s top 10 just ahead of the film’s release this weekend. She’ll no doubt earn a Golden Globe nomination for her performance but it’s a deep field this year. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) also earned a Gotham nod and support for her seems to be strong but, outside of the Globes where they’re in different genre categories, her and Moore are both running the comeback narrative slot with Jolie and they’re may ultimately be only room for one or two.
But, watch out for Kate Winslet. She’s campaigning hard once again and she’s got Frances Fisher on her side.
Nominations the Spirit Awards will be December 4, just two days after the Gotham Awards winners ceremony, nominations for the Golden Globes in drama and comedy will be here December 9 and Critics Choice noms will land December 12. The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. By then we’ll also have the lion’s share of individual critics’ group having chimed in with their winners in acting categories, among others.
Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for November.
| 1. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) | Gotham |
| 2. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) | Gotham |
| 3. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) | |
| 4. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24) | Venice, Gotham |
| 5. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes, EFA |
| 6. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics) | Gotham, BIFA |
| 7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) | Gotham, BIFA |
| 8. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | |
| 9. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| 10. Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) – Gotham | Gotham |
Next up: Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – EFA, Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment), Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM)
Other contenders: Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance (Apple Original Films), Anna Kendrick – Woman of the Hour (Netflix), Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Tuesday (A24), Julianne Nicholson – Janet Planet (A24), Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24), Emma Stone – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Tilda Swinton – The End (NEON), Robin Wright – Here (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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