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Home / Predictions / Film / Oscars / The Gold Rush Gang / 2017 Oscar Predictions / 2017 Oscar Predictions: Frontrunner Friday Sees Some Close Races in the Final Stretch

2017 Oscar Predictions: Frontrunner Friday Sees Some Close Races in the Final Stretch

2017-oscar-nominations-best-picture

We’re just over a week away from the Oscars and as we head into the final stretch something surprising is happening. We’re seeing cracks in previously ‘locked’ categories, opening the door for former frontrunners to be overtaken by late-breaking films and performances. Specifically, Best Actor is now a true horserace with Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington (Fences) providing us with a true nail-biter that won’t be settled until that envelope is opened. Supporting Actor is also now a real race. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) has stumbled a bit on the road to Oscar and Lion‘s Dev Patel picked up the slack with his BAFTA win last weekend. Combine the facts that Moonlight seems to have plateaued a bit while Lion is just taking off, not to mention those egregious FYC ads from TWC, and you have the makings of an upset. Something to note: the last year that none of the four acting winners did not play a real-life person was 1997. With Emma Stone now the indisputable frontrunner in Best Actress, Viola Davis in Supporting Actress, and Andrew Garfield not in play in Best Actor, that leaves Supporting Actor to keep that going. Dev Patel is the only nominee playing a real-life person. Although, you could make the argument that Ali’s Juan is based on a real person in playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney’s childhood but it’s a stretch.

Here is your Frontrunner Friday predictions for February 17th.

Best Picture

BEST PICTURE
ERIK ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
2 Moonlight 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 90
3 Manchester By the Sea 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 80
4 Lion 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 67
5 Arrival 4 6 4 6 4 5 6 5 6 6 58
6 Hidden Figures 6 5 7 5 8 7 5 7 5 5 50
7 Hacksaw Ridge 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 42
8 Hell or High Water 9 8 8 9 7 8 8 6 9 8 30
9 Fences 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 23

oscar-statues

Best Director

DIRECTING
ERIK ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Damien Chazelle, La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Barry Jenkins, Moonlight 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 39
3 Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea 4 5 3 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 27
4 Denis Villeneuve, Arrival 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 23
5 Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 11

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Best Actor

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 46
2 Denzel Washington, Fences 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 44
3 Ryan Gosling, La La Land 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 30
4 Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 16
5 Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 14

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Best Actress

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Emma Stone, La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Isabelle Huppert, Elle 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 38
3 Natalie Portman, Jackie 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 32
4 Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20
5 Ruth Negga, Loving 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

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Best Supporting Actor

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Mahershala Ali, Moonlight 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 4 3 34
2 Dev Patel, Lion 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 3 2 2 34
4 Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 4 5 4 18
5 Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 5 14

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Best Supporting Actress

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Viola Davis, Fences 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 40
3 Naomie Harris, Moonlight 5 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 25
4 Nicole Kidman, Lion 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 23
5 Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 12

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Best Adapted Screenplay

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Moonlight 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Lion 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 35
3 Arrival 3 4 2 4 2 2 4 2 3 4 30
4 Hidden Figures 4 3 4 3 4 4 2 4 4 3 25
5 Fences 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

oscar-statues

Best Original Screenplay

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 48
2 Manchester By the Sea 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 42
3 Hell or High Water 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 29
4 The Lobster 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 18
5 20th Century Women 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 13

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Best Film Editing

FILM EDITING
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Moonlight 4 4 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 35
3 Arrival 2 3 3 3 3 4 2 4 3 4 29
4 Hacksaw Ridge 3 2 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 26
5 Hell or High Water 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

oscar-statues

Best Cinematography

CINEMATOGRAPHY
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Moonlight 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 33
3 Lion 4 2 5 2 4 2 2 3 2 2 32
4 Arrival 2 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 23
5 Silence 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 12

oscar-statues

Best Production Design

PRODUCTION DESIGN
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 35
3 Arrival 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 2 33
4 Hail, Caesar! 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 19
5 Passengers 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 13

oscar-statues

Best Costume Design

COSTUME DESIGN
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Jackie 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 47
2 La La Land 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 40
3 Florence Foster Jenkins 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 32
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 20
5 Allied 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 11

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Best Makeup & Hairstyling

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Star Trek Beyond 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 A Man Called Ove 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 36
3 Suicide Squad 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 34

oscar-statues

Best Original Score

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Lion 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 38
3 Moonlight 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 27
4 Jackie 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 3 4 3 25
5 Passengers 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

oscar-statues

Best Original Song

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 “City Of Stars,” La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 “Audition,” La La Land 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 35
2 “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 35
4 “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” Trolls 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20
5 “The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

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Best Sound Editing

SOUND EDITING
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Hacksaw Ridge 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 49
2 Arrival 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 2 37
3 La La Land 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 3 3 32
4 Deepwater Horizon 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 2 5 4 18
5 Sully 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 14

oscar-statues

Best Sound Mixing

SOUND MIXING
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 La La Land 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Hacksaw Ridge 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 35
3 Arrival 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 2 3 34
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 21
5 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

oscar-statues

Best Visual Effects

VISUAL EFFECTS
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 The Jungle Book 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Doctor Strange 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 3 29
2 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5 3 4 2 2 2 5 3 3 2 29
4 Deepwater Horizon 2 5 2 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 24
5 Kubo and the Two Strings 3 2 5 5 5 5 2 5 4 5 19

oscar-statues

Best Animated Feature

ANIMATED FEATURE
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Zootopia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50
2 Kubo and the Two Strings 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 39
3 Moana 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 31
4 My Life as a Zucchini 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20
5 The Red Turtle 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

oscar-statues

Best Documentary Feature

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 OJ: Made In America 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 48
2 13TH 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 40
3 I Am Not Your Negro 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 4 3 30
4 Life, Animated 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 20
5 Fire At Sea 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 5 12

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Best Foreign Language Film

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Toni Erdmann (Germany) 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 43
2 The Salesman (Iran) 1 1 4 1 3 4 1 3 1 1 40
3 Land Of Mine (Denmark) 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 3 3 31
4 A Man Called Ove (Sweden) 4 3 3 4 1 3 4 4 4 4 26
5 Tanna (Australia) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10

oscar-statues

Best Short: Documentary

SHORTS (DOCUMENTARY)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 The White Helmets 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 48
2 Joe’s Violin 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 41
3 4.1 Miles 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 24
4 Watani: My Homeland 3 5 3 3 3 5 3 2 5 5 23
5 Extremis 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 14

oscar-statues

Best Short: Animated

SHORTS (ANIMATED)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Piper 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 49
2 Pearl 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 2 3 35
3 Blind Vaysha 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 31
4 Borrowed Time 4 4 4 3 3 2 5 5 4 4 22
5 Pear Cider & Cigarettes 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 12

oscar-statues

Best Short: Live-Action

SHORTS (LIVE ACTION)
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN
BONAFEDE
CHRIS
PEPPER
EVAN
KOST
JAMES
NARVEY
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
JÚLIA
ALBUQUERQUE
MONIKA
NIKOLIĆ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ROBERT
SCHIRMER
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Timecode 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 49
2 Sing 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 38
3 Silent Nights 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 27
4 Ennemis Interiors 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 25
5 La Femme et le TGV 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 11

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association), the International Press Academy and is the founder/editor of AwardsWatch.

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  • Why do you think “Pearl” is a favorite?

    • AwardsWatch

      Just a hunch and that Pixar hasn’t won here in 15 years. Pear Cider & Cigarettes could totally spoil though, the shorts races are always very difficult.