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Home / Predictions / Film / Forum Oscar Poll Results – October 2016: Emma Stone, Damien Chazelle Top Charts in La La Land Frenzy

Forum Oscar Poll Results – October 2016: Emma Stone, Damien Chazelle Top Charts in La La Land Frenzy

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Finally, some BIG changes in this month’s poll results. Nearly every category sees some serious upheaval, with longstanding #1s finding themselves dethroned.

In Best Picture, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight both creep up and secure top 5 footing but look at this, Fox Searchlight scooping up Jackie and releasing it on December 9th was a too shiny an object for the forum voters to ignore and the film debuts at #4 for the month. Silence and Fences, both from Paramount, take a tumble even with the former finally getting a release date (December 23rd – limited, wide in January) and the latter getting its first teaser trailer. Two films, Sully and Lion, are re-entries this month. Sully due to its strong box office and Lion for its reception at the Toronto International Film Festival.

Lots of movement in Best Director with La La Land‘s Damien Chazelle snatching the crown from Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk). Worth noting; if Chazelle were to win the Oscar he’d be the youngest director ever to capture this award. Manchester by the Sea‘s Kenneth Lonergan and Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins move up, just as their films did on the Best Picture chart and also like that list, Pablo Larraín, the director of Jackie, makes a huge debut at #5.

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) pushes past Denzel Washington (Fences) in Best Actor and Ryan Gosling (La La Land) makes a huge move and la la lands at #3. Dev Patel (Lion) is the new entry for the month but he also shows up in Supporting Actor.

Best Actress saw the most action this last month with the entire top 10 shifting in some way. That includes a brand new #1 for the first time this season. Emma Stone (La La Land) breaks through Viola Davis’s (Fences) stranglehold of the top spot and Jackie‘s Natalie Portman debuts at #2, knocking Davis down to 3rd place. But we’re not talking about a lot of votes here, only nine separate Davis from Portman and gossipy rumors of Davis being pushed Supporting pulled some votes from here (she also shows up there). Also dropping down are Ruth Negga (Loving), Annette Bening (20th Century Women) and Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train). Chances are strong that Bening bounces back next month, though. Isabelle Huppert (Elle) is the month’s sole debut.

Here are the Forum Oscar Poll Results for October 2016 with handy dandy color codes for films (green is up, red is down, yellow is a re-entry), directors and performances that have gone up or down in placement since last month.

BEST PICTURE

LLL d 12 _2353.NEF

01. La La Land (98%; 121 votes)
02. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (97%; 120 votes)
03. Manchester by the Sea (96%; 119 votes)
04. Jackie (87%; 108 votes) – NEW
04. Moonlight (87%; 108 votes)
06. Silence (86%; 107 votes)
07. Arrival (77%; 95 votes)
08. Fences (69%; 86 votes)
09. Sully (46%; 57 votes) – RE-ENTRY
10. Lion (44%; 54 votes) – RE-ENTRY

Off the chart this month: 20th Century Women, The Birth of a Nation, Loving

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle - La La Land

01. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (100%; 87 votes)
02. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (93%; 81 votes)
03. Martin Scorsese, Silence (85%; 74 votes)
04. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (66%; 57 votes)
05. Pablo Larraín, Jackie (60%; 52 votes) – NEW

06. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (49%; 43 votes)
07. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (23%; 20 votes)
08. Denzel Washington, Fences (7%; 6 votes)
09. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (5%; 4 votes) – NEW
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (3%; 3 votes)

Off the chart this month: Jeff Nichols, Loving; Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

BEST ACTOR

manchester-by-the-sea-casey-affleck

01. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (98%; 169 votes)
02. Denzel Washington, Fences (94%; 161 votes)
03. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (90%; 155 votes)
04. Andrew Garfield, Silence (63%; 108 votes)
05. Tom Hanks, Sully (62%; 106 votes)

06. Joel Edgerton, Loving (27%; 46 votes)
07. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (19%; 33 votes)
08. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (15%; 25 votes)
09. Dev Patel, Lion (9%; 15 votes) – NEW
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (7%; 12 votes)

Off the chart this month: Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

BEST ACTRESS

Emma Stone - La La Land

01. Emma Stone, La La Land (95%; 225 votes)
02. Natalie Portman, Jackie (93%; 221 votes)
03. Viola Davis, Fences (89%; 212 votes)
04. Amy Adams, Arrival (68%; 160 votes)
05. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (35%; 83 votes)

06. Ruth Negga, Loving (33%; 79 votes)
07. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (29%; 68 votes) – NEW
08. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (18%; 43 votes)
09. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (7%; 17 votes)
10. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (7%; 16 votes)

Off the chart this month: Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

nocturnal-animals-michael-shannon

01. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (86%; 118 votes)
02. Liam Neeson, Silence (82%; 113 votes)
03. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (77%; 106 votes)
04. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (69%; 95 votes)
05. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (43%; 59 votes) – NEW

06. Dev Patel, Lion (41%; 56 votes) – NEW
07. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (20%; 28 votes)
08. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (15%; 21 votes)
09. Stephen McKinley Henderson, Fences (14%; 20 votes)
10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (9%; 13 votes) – NEW

Off the chart this month: Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply; Adam Driver, Silence; Aaron Eckhart, Sully

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

manchester-by-the-sea-trailer-michelle-williams-3

01. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (95%; 161 votes)
02. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (90%; 152 votes)
03. Nicole Kidman, Lion (72%; 122 votes)
04. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (66%; 112 votes)
05. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (41%; 69 votes) – NEW

06. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (36%; 61 votes) – NEW
07. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (14%; 24 votes)
08. Viola Davis, Fences (11%; 18 votes) – NEW
08. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (11%; 18 votes)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (10%; 17 votes) – NEW

Off the chart this month: Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation; Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Billy-Lynns-Long-Halftime-Walk-626x299

01. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (94%; 61 votes)
02. Silence (92; 60 votes)
03. Fences (86%; 56 votes)
04. Arrival (72%; 47 votes)
05. Nocturnal Animals (45%; 29 votes)

06. Love & Friendship (37%; 24 votes)
07. Lion (25%; 16 votes)
08. Sully (22%; 14 votes)
09. Other (9%; 6 votes)
10. Elle (5%; 3 votes) – NEW

Off the chart this month: The Light Between Oceans

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

La La Land

01. La La Land (98%; 64 votes)
01. Manchester by the Sea (98%; 64 votes)
03. Jackie (95%; 62 votes)
04. Moonlight (94%; 61 votes)
05. Hell or High Water (34%; 22 votes) – NEW

06. Loving (26%; 17 votes)
07. 20th Century Women (23%; 15 votes)
08. The Lobster (9%; 6 votes)
09. Toni Erdmann (8%; 5 votes)
10. The Birth of a Nation (5%; 3 votes)

Off the chart this month: Everybody Wants Some!!, Zootopia

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association), the International Press Academy and is the founder/editor of AwardsWatch.

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