2015 Film Independent Spirit Award Nomination Predictions

Yep, we’re here. The kick-off to awards season really starts next week with the announcement of the 31^st Film Independent Spirit Award nominations on Tuesday, November 24^th.

For all of the grief given to the Broadcast Film Critics Association and their Critics Choice Movie Awards for feeling like Oscar’s bastard son, over the last few years the Independent Spirit Awards have aligned with the Academy Awards with an almost alarming degree. The last two Best Feature winners here (12 Years a Slave and Birdman) have won Best Picture at the Oscars. The acting awards went 7/8. Pretty interesting considering the Indie Spirits really began as a backlash against the studio system’s domination of The Oscars.

The studios have really taken note of these awards and gone to great lengths to get them eligible at any cost. Speaking of cost, one of the main eligibility requirements for the Independent Spirits is budget; it can’t be more than $20 million. Unless, of course, you’re Harvey Weinstein and you get your $21 million Silver Linings Playbook in.

And speaking of Weinstein, another major rule here is the requirement that films be American productions. But even that’s a blurry line. Weinstein’s 2011 Best Picture Oscar winner The Artist also won here. There are a handful of films this year that are up in the air as to their eligibility, making predictions especially difficult. One would think that Room, starring Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay, would be a shoo-in here, it’s the talk of the town. But, it’s a Canadian and Irish production and was shot in Canada. I’m suspecting it will be in. Brooklyn, starring Saoirse Ronan, is an Irish production. Larson was recently nominated for a Gotham Award and those also have a ‘strict’ American production only requirement. But wait, there’s more! There is yet another requirement for a film to be eligible; it must have either been released in theaters in 2015 or played one of six major U.S. festivals (Sundance, Los Angeles, New Directors/New Films, New York, Telluride, Toronto).

This could be a wildly different year here since it seems that The Oscars might be turning back to some big studio pics over the indies its embraced recently. Between Joy, The Revenant and The Martian (all 20^th Century Fox, by the way) not being anywhere near eligible here and heavily favored for The Oscars, it could actually be an indie year at the aptly named Film Independent Spirit Awards.

So, let’s get onto some predictions:

BEST FEATURE

Beasts of No Nation

Carol

Room

Spotlight

Tangerine

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd Haynes – Carol

Marielle Heller – Diary of a Teenage Girl

Lenny Abrahamson – Room

Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

Sean Baker – Tangerine

BEST FIRST FEATURE

The Diary of a Teenage Girl

Ex Machina

I’ll See You in My Dreams

James White

Meadowland

BEST MALE LEAD

Christopher Abbott – James White

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

Shameik Moore – Dope

Peter Sarsgaard – The Experimenter

Jason Segel – The End of the Tour

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Cate Blanchett – Carol

Brie Larson – Room

Bel Powley – The Diary of a Teenage Girl

Sarah Silverman – I Smile Back

Lily Tomlin – Grandma

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Paul Dano – Love & Mercy

Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton – Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight

Jacob Tremblay – Room

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Joan Allen – Room

Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy

Olivia Cooke – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

Cynthia Nixon – James White

Kristen Wiig – The Diary of a Teenage Girl

BEST SCREENPLAY

Anomalisa

Mistress America

Spotlight

Tangerine

While We’re Young

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

The Diary of a Teenage Girl

James White

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

Room

The Witch

BEST FOREIGN FILM

45 Years

Brooklyn

Ex Machina

Mustang

Son of Saul

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Amy

Best of Enemies

Cartel Land

Heart of a Dog

The Look of Silence