2015 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR – J.K. Simmons Gives Edward Norton Whiplash

After posting the biggest increase last month, J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) does it again and pushes himself up to 1st place with a perfect score of 50 (up a giant 17 points). Only Simmons and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) enjoy that score in the top tier categories at this time.

Last month’s #1, Edward Norton (Birdman), takes a hit and falls to #2 but comfortably ahead of consistent #3 placeholder Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher). Ruffalo drops 10 points as lack of faith in the film continues to permeate the Gold Rush Gang’s thoughts on how the movie will be received by the Academy.

Three-time Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke joins Patricia Arquette as a performance from Boyhood (IFC Films) we think is getting nominated. He leaps ahead of Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) who falls four points. Will Inherent Vice be too weird for the Academy? The GRG thinks so and Brolin is just barely holding onto his #5 placement with renewed vigor from Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes. Although that film has seen its share of bad press and questionable awards prospects, a few of us see the potential for Weinstein to category fraud Waltz into Supporting to ensure a nomination. Hey, last time he did it it won him his second Best Supporting Actor Oscar.

Both of the Selma men (Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth) fall far out of the top 5. The lack of assurance of the size and impact of their roles and that mixed test screening aren’t doing them any favors with the Gold Rush Gang this month. We’ll have to see how the response from AFI Fest and the trailer affect that.

Miyavi (Unbroken) is an outlier here, with just Kenneth and myself finding a spot for him. Good word of mouth and a ramped up marketing push for him and the film is just starting this week so we could see his numbers increase come next batch of predictions. As Universal‘s only real player in the race they’ll be throwing everything they have at a massive awards campaign and Miyavi’s is the kind of role and character that could benefit.