2016 Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress in a Drama Series

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Unlike Lead Actor in a Drama Series, Lead Actress seems all but locked and done. Or is it? Looking at the six nominees you can kind of break them up into three groups of two: Great chance, good chance and no chance.

After Viola Davis’s historic win last year (she is the first woman of color to win this category), our Emmy Experts all agree she’s going to repeat for How to Get Away with Murder. The Emmys do love their repeat winners and even with the popular vote being the rule, those who still ‘watch the tapes’ will find a killer one for Davis here. She submitted as shrewdly as she did last year and feels unstoppable.

But look right below her; just as everyone has Davis on top, everyone has Keri Russell (The Americans) right underneath. Russell also submitted superbly, the episode directed by her co-star on the show and in real life, Matthew Rhys (who also submitted this episode). If anyone is going to keep Davis from taking this one again, it’s Russell.

Next in line you have Robin Wright (House of Cards) who finally submitted well but her icy cold Claire Underwood just might not have enough range for Emmy voters. Although in this episode, dealing with her ailing mother, she does more than usual. Previous winner Claire Danes (Homeland) pulls out her ‘Carrie off her meds’ shtick again in hopes of getting another trophy but it might feel like old hat. Still, she’s an Emmy favorite and her show has Drama Series and directing nominations, which puts her in a category of her own as the only nominee here with that on her side.

At the bottom are returning nominees from last year Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) and Taraji P. Henson (Empire). Maslany was a bit of a surprise as some felt her nomination last year was a one-and-done lark. Henson is lucky to be here as Empire’s disastrous nomination total last year (three) is now just Henson herself. A win for either of them would be virtually inexplicable.

Here are the winner predictions from the Emmy Experts for Lead Actress in a Drama Series on August 31st.

Check out August 2016 Emmy Predictions for:

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Guest Actor and Actress in a Drama and Comedy Series

Plus, the updating Emmy charts here.