Golden Globe Nomination Predictions – FILM

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The ever-changing landscape of The Golden Globes always makes it a fun awards group to predict. Whether it’s controversy over the category placement of films (like The Martian in and Joy in Comedy/Musical last year) or trying to improve its star-whoring reputation by snubbing big names like Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie recently (coming after the debacle of The Tourist) with the group enacting new rules to thwart that and about campaigning we could see a more mature, legit Golden Globes.

This year is going to test the strength of outside controversy in the form of Nate Parker’s 1999 rape arrest (and subsequent acquittal) and how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will deal with The Birth of a Nation. Will they separate the art from the artist? Will the film be able to stand on its own or will the very mixed reviews of it sink its chances? It may be risky but for right now I’m predicting the Globes to snub the film entirely. We’ll know more once HFPA members see the film and comment on it though.

So where does that leave us in Drama? Will the fall critics’ darling Moonlight hit with the HFPA or be too uniquely “American” for them? I’m predicting Naomie Harris to still get in but for the film, and its other possible acting shot (Mahershala Ali) to be just on the outside looking in. For now.

Denzel Washington has been a favorite of the HFPA for a long time: he’s been nominated by the group seven times, winning twice, and was the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille award just this last January. Fences could earn him his first directing nod from the group.

Martin Scorsese hasn’t been Golden Globe-nominated since 2012 (for Hugo, where he won Best Director) but with Silence being officially a 2016 release (UPDATE: Silence has an official release date from Paramount Pictures: limited on December 23rd, wide in January), he should get a place at the table, as well as the film and Supporting Actor Liam Neeson.

I feel like the Globes will go heavy on Lion, with nominations in Motion Picture, Director, Actor (Dev Patel) and Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman). The film feels ripe for Kidman’s awards comeback after getting close with The Paperboy in 2012. Patel’s category placement is the only question; he could be pushed supporting in SAG and for the Oscars despite being the focus and protagonist of his film yet still get in as lead with the Globes (like we saw with Alicia Vikander last season).

I’m really torn on whether Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) will get her 6th Golden Globe nomination (they seem to love her) or if French cinema legend Isabelle Huppert (Elle) will make the cut. Right now I’m going with Blunt – her film opens in a few weeks and could be big. But I’m absolutely watching out for Huppert to spoil that.

With La La Land being the current frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar it’s safe to say that there’s almost no need to list other films in the Comedy/Musical category – it’s clearly winning. But here’s an interesting factoid to think about in terms of Oscar: the last film to win the Best Picture Oscar without a screenplay nomination at The Golden Globes was 2004’s Million Dollar Baby. Musicals often have a very hard time securing a screenplay nomination from AMPAS, especially song-heavy ones. I’m going to say the Globes nominate it though. One thing La La Land‘s inevitable win here won’t do is give us much insight on something else pushing its way past the frontrunner since the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories are split.

Nominations for the 2017 Golden Globe Awards will be Monday, December 12th, 2016.

Here are my predictions for this year’s Golden Globe nominations:

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Fences
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Silence

Other Contenders: Arrival, The Birth of a Nation, Loving, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, Passengers, Sully

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
20^th Century Women
Café Society
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
The Lobster

Other Contenders: Everybody Wants Some!!, The Nice Guys, Love & Friendship, Rules Don’t Apply

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Amy Adams, Arrival
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Viola Davis, Fences
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Other Contenders: Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane; Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures; Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers; Rachel Weisz, Denial

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Tom Hanks, Sully
Dev Patel, Lion
Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Contenders: Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk; Andrew Garfield, Silence; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals; Michael Keaton, The Founder; Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Annette Bening, 20^th Century Women
Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Baby

Other Contenders: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship; Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply; Hailee Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen; Kristen Stewart, Café Society

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Other Contenders: Josh Brolin, Hail, Caesar!; Russell Crowe, The Nice Guys; Adam Driver, Paterson; Alden Ehrenreich, Rules Don’t Apply

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Liam Neeson, Silence

Other Contenders: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This; Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation; Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk; Jeremy Renner, Arrival; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals; Timothy Spall, Denial

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Other Contenders: Elle Fanning, 20^th Century Women; Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train; Greta Gerwig, 20^th Century Women; Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Garth Davis, Lion
Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Contenders: Martin Scorsese, Silence; Clint Eastwood, Sully; Jeff Nichols, Loving; Barry Jenkins, Moonlight; Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Fences
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

Other Contenders: 20^th Century Women, The Birth of a Nation, Loving, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, Silence

BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Zootopia

Other Contenders: Angry Birds; The Little Prince, The Red Turtle, Sausage Party, The Secret Life of Pets, Storks

BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Aquarius, Brazil
Elle, France
Land of Mine, Denmark
Toni Erdmann, Germany
The Salesman, Iran

Other Contenders: Graduation, Romania; The Handmaiden, South Korea; Sand Storm, Israel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Jackie
Moana
Silence

Other Contenders: The Birth of a Nation, Denial, Finding Dory, Lion, Loving, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“We Know the Way,” Moana
“Go Now,” Sing Street
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“Try Everything,” Zootopia

Other Contenders: “No Dames,” Hail, Caesar!; “Victory,” Hidden Figures; “Audition,” La La Land; “I’m So Humble,” Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping; “The Great Beyond,” Sausage Party; “Drive It Like You Stole It,” Sing Street