2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS – Lawrence, Blanchett, Larson and Ronan locking it up

It seems like it happens every year but we’re not even to November yet and Best Actress is a category that is almost sewn up. By our standpoint there are only seven contenders here, four of which are as close to ‘locked’ as that word can be in an Oscar race. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) and Cate Blanchett (Carol) have never left their #1 and #2 spots since the beginning of the year. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) has been a favorite even earlier than that as her film debuted at Sundance in January. Brie Larson in Room is the real wild card as she and her film really burst onto the scene in late summer, culminating in a surprise People’s Choice Award win at the Toronto International Film Festival in September that cemented her as not only a contender but as a threat to win. We are probably looking at a Joy vs. Joy competition this year (both Larson and Lawrence’s characters are named Joy).

Earlier in the summer Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) was a no-brainer here; she had the role, subject matter and timing for a textbook Best Actress nominee. Until the film was seen. With a 65 on Metacritic and a 76% on Rotten Tomatoes, Mulligan, whose film and director were also tapped for Oscar nominations early in the race, is struggling to stay alive. Her chances should increase with a possible Golden Globe nomination thanks to Drama and Comedy being split (although, with Joy looking like it will go Drama, that takes away one more slot) and BAFTA probably embracing her, it could be enough to push her past the other two ladies battling for the #5 spot, Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Lily Tomlin (Grandma). With Rampling, she comes in with the best reviews of her career and having never earned an Oscar or even a BAFTA (!!) nomination. Tomlin comes with a well-reviewed minor hit and as one of the most awarded actresses in history across film, television and stage. Her one and only Oscar nomination was 40 years ago and she could be welcomed back warmly by the Academy for her acerbic role in Grandma.

Not on the list but definitely on our horizon is Maggie Smith in The Lady in the Van. Strong reviews and a push from Sony Classics could get her into the top 5 quickly. Smith, a two-time Oscar winner, five-time BAFTA winner (competitive), four-time Screen Actors Guild winner, three-time Golden Globe winner and three-time Emmy winner is no slouch to gathering trophies. But where will the Academy go with choices as impressive as Rampling, Tomlin and Smith?

Best Actress is historically the best category for The Gold Rush Gang. We often have it locked up early in the year and at this time last year was 4/5 with that surprise Marion Cotillard nomination spoiling a perfect score. We’ll have to see if someone this year gets the SAG-BFCA-BAFTA-GG treatment only to have the Oscar snatched away on nomination morning.

Don’t forget, you can always get up to the minute Oscar predictions from the Gold Rush Gang on all of our 2016 Oscar Prediction Charts:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS