2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Carol Tops but there’s Room to Grow

This is a highly competitive category this year where it seems almost anything can end up in the top 5. The damage of Steve Jobs‘ box office and the amount of vitriol leveled to the film this week and leeched into the film’s ratings here in Best Adapted Screenplay and it slides to #2. It’s still a very safe bet here, it’s a very ‘writer-ly’ film that should go over well with the writing branch of the Academy. But, the film’s stumble gives way to Carol to be a clear frontrunner.

But, watch out for Room. The screenplay makes a big debut this month and looking at the placement of it by some of the Gold Rush Gang, it could end up at #2 in no time. The Charlie Kaufman animated film Anomalisa also makes a big debut at #4 and The Big Short opens at #5.

All of this means that former top 5 contenders Brooklyn, The Revenant and Beasts of No Nation sit at the bottom of the pack. But look closely at the numbers and you’ll see just how close that #5 spot is between the bottom four films. Any of them could bounce right back at even the slightest of faltering of another film.

But, is there something even lower that could surprise? What if The Martian is as big as some of us think it is? It’s screenplay, full of zingers and levity to cut through the (melo)drama could very easily supplant any of these lower-tier screenplays. The Danish Girl has suffered quite a bit since its Venice and Toronto debuts but maybe it could show up. Other than that I don’t much else happening to disrupt this group.

Don’t forget, you can always get up to the minute Oscar predictions from the Gold Rush Gang on all of our 2016 Oscar Prediction Charts:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS