2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE

Spotlight is enjoying its frontrunner status with a perfect score in Best Picture from the Gold Rush Gang. But the recent critics awards success for Carol, The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road and Room are starting to encroach on that. Most especially Mad Max, which is turning into a formidable opponent for the journalism drama. In this unusual year, Mad Max missing out on a SAG Cast nomination a la Braveheart back in 1995, might not end up being as big a negative as its been for films for the last two decades. The passion vote could push it all the way.

As you can see by the chart, a whopping 14 films have votes for the 5-10 slots that will make up Best Picture and they run the gamut of genres, styles and precursor support. When Beasts of No Nation, The Big Short, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton and Trumbo received those SAG Cast nominations it turned the Oscar blogging community on its head. Spotlight and The Big Short weren’t surprises but the other three were. That could bode very well for those three or simply be an anomalous year, as this year seems to be. You’ll notice that of that list only Straight Outta Compton doesn’t show up with the Gold Rush Gang. Scott Feinberg has been an early supporter of the film getting in (even before SAG noms) but we aren’t quite there. Are we behind or is he ahead?

The Golden Globes, although not an industry group, gave a boost to Carol, Room and The Revenant as they all made it into Motion Picture (Drama) alongside Spotlight and Mad Max. The Martian got into Comedy, giving it new life after its surprising SAG snub. Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn hang on by a thread. Both missed SAG Cast noms and Golden Globe Motion Picture nominations and now seem like contenders for just Mark Rylance and Saoirse Ronan, respectively. Still, it’s hard to simply discount a Steven Spielberg film that focuses on an era that covers the largest demographic in the Academy. That same demo also contains Brooklyn support.

Looking at the list there are arguments to be made for nearly all of them; actor support, tech branch support, frontrunner status, racial/gender/sexual diversity. Anything you can ask for is in that group.

To follow the Gold Rush Gang and their Best Picture predictions and find out how we voted, go here.