2016 Oscar Predictions: Post-TIFF, Venice and Telluride Finds Spotlight Rising, Joy Still at #1

So, it’s been a month since I updated the Gold Rush Gang’s Oscar predictions. The 1-2-3 punch of the Venice, Telluride and Toronto film festivals caused so much havoc and change that it made sense to hold off until those had passed to get the most updated version of our predictions to you possible.

One of the most interesting things to happen post-festival is that many of the films that had been unseen and were thought of as frontrunners saw mediocre reviews knock them down a few pegs. Huge expectations for The Danish Girl might have led to some of its reviews coming out as less than stellar. Hype and hope can sometimes damage a film irreparably if those returns are diminished. On the other side, we began the festivals with no real Best Picture frontrunner (unusual for this time in the Oscar race) but most post-festival talk has been around Spotlight. While that film enters The Gold Rush Gang top 5 in Best Picture, some critics and Oscar pundits have already christened it as the first real frontrunner of the season. I feel like this is potentially more damaging than effective. Look at what happened last year when Boyhood was hoisted up like Simba over the land as THE frontrunner. That isn’t to say that Spotlight won’t shine, just that there are still four major contenders that haven’t been seen yet (Bridge of Spies,The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant) and those could spoil, just as Birdman did.

Now, here at AwardsWatch we have David O. Russell’s Joy at #1 and have had it there since we started our 2016 Oscar predictions since they began. It’s a risk, to be sure; it’s unseen and could disappoint. Maybe AMPAS is tired of Russell. But then, it’s hard to deny the Academy’s adoration of his films, especially the performances. Even though American Hustle went 0-10 in 2013, that’s still 10 nominations and his second film in a row to get nominations in all four acting categories, a record he alone has. Looking at Joy‘s cast it doesn’t seem like he can three-peat that since the actors all seem like they’ll be contending in supporting. But, Jennifer Lawrence is solid in Best Actress, De Niro and/or Edgar Ramirez look strong in Supporting Actor and there are a handful of Joy actresses contending in Supporting Actress (Diane Ladd, Isabella Rossellini, Elizabeth Röhm, Dascha Polanco).

Other films that rose post-festival are Beasts of No Nation and Son of Saul, both receiving huge boosts in multiple major categories. Now, there is some hesitation from others that the material might be too difficult to watch but 12 Years a Slave weathered those same detracting thoughts to win Best Picture. Steve Jobs is holding strong, especially in the acting categories after the recent screening of the yet finished The Hateful Eight last week, Jennifer Jason Leigh bursts onto the chart with what would be her first (really, her first) Oscar nomination. A24‘s Room, starring Brie Larson, won the People’s Choice Award at Toronto and that was a shock and surprise to all and really put Larson and the film (and her pint-sized co-star Jacob Tremblay) on the map. Larson bursts onto the Best Actress chart at #4.

On the flip side, Brooklyn and Youth (both from Fox Searchlight) left the festivals with strong reviews for the Brooklyn in Best Actress but ultimately with a bit of a fizzle in the passion department. Considering Fox Searchlight has won Best Picture two years running now it’s hard to imagine that they won’t be able to get at least one of those film in but as of right now, we’re seeing both on the outside looking in. Freeheld also tanked hard at Toronto, taking with it an Oscar follow-up for Julianne Moore and another bid for Ellen Page. Same goes for Our Brand Is Crisis (what is going on with Warner Bros this season?). Slaughtered by the critics, Sandra Bullock and Billy Bob Thornton are out of it now too.

Now, let’s see where things are after the New York Film Festival. Until then, here are your 2016 Oscar Predictions from The Gold Rush Gang.

BEST PICTURE

1. Joy
2. Carol
3. Beasts of No Nation
4. The Revenant
5. Spotlight
6. Steve Jobs
7. Inside Out
8. The Danish Girl
9. Son of Saul
10. Bridge of Spies

Full list here
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BEST DIRECTOR

1. David O. Russell – Joy
2. Todd Haynes – Carol
3. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
5. Lázló Nemes – Son of Saul

Full list here
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BEST ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
4. Michael Caine – Youth
5. Johnny Depp – Black Mass

Full list here
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BEST ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
2. Cate Blanchett – Carol
3. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
4. Brie Larson – Room
5. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette

Full list here
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
2. Robert De Niro – Joy
3. Michael Keaton – Spotlight
4. Tom Hardy – The Revenany
5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Full list here
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rooney Mara – Carol
2. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
3. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
4. Diane Ladd – Joy
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

Full list here
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Carol
2. Steve Jobs
3. Beasts of No Nation
4. The Danish Girl
5. Brooklyn

Full list here
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Joy
2. Inside Out
3. Spotlight
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Youth

Full list here
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BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Revenant
2. Joy
3. Beasts of No Nation
4. Steve Jobs
5. Spotlight

Full list here
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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Carol
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Son of Saul

Full list here
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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Carol
2. The Danish Girl
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Suffragette

Full list here
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BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Cinderella
2. Carol
3. The Danish Girl
4. Suffragette
5. Macbeth

Full list here
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BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Danish Girl
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant

Full list here
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BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Inside Out
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

Full list here
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SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Inside Out
4. Beasts of No Nation
5. The Revenant

Full list here
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BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. Beasts of No Nation
5. The Martian

Full list here
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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. The Good Dinosaur
3. Anomalisa
4. Minions
5. The Peanuts Movie

Full list here
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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron
4. The Martian
5. In the Heart of the Sea

Full list here