2017 Independent Spirit Award Nomination Predictions

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The nominations for the 2017 Independent Spirit Awards are tomorrow (!) and I have my thoughts on what’s making it in this. Although it seems like each year the Indie Spirits look more and more like the Oscars in terms of nominations, I’d posit that it’s the Oscars that keep embracing strong, well-made indies year after year. Sure, there are always going to be big studio films nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but with the Independent Spirits’ $20 million dollar budget limitation, this is where we find small and mid-range independent films that have made their marks on critics and audiences alike and where that sweet spot for Oscar can be.

Looking at the major contenders here, especially for Best Film, I think we’ll see a lot of familiar names. Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight are expected to reap a huge bounty tomorrow, as they are on Oscar nomination morning. The Independent Spirits will give us performances and films that are unlikely to end up at the Dolby in February and it’s one of the reasons this is still such a vital awards body. Lauded performances by Rebecca Hall in Christine, Sasha Lane in American Honey and Parker Sawyer & Tika Sumpter in the Barack/Michelle Obama first date film Southside With You are probably only going to find love at a place like the Indie Spirits.

For others, this is going to be a big jumping off point for awards season. I expect to see Hell or High Water, Jackie and 20th Century Women find a good start for the coming months of campaigning, screenings, Q&As and awards body nominations.

Here’s a fun fact going into tomorrow: Michelle Williams will extend her lead as the most-nominated female actor if she’s nominated for Manchester by the Sea, for which she most surely will be. It will be her sixth nomination. She won in 2012 for Best Female Lead (for My Week with Marilyn) and a juried Robert Altman Award win in 2009 for her part in the ensemble of Synecdoche, New York. Julianne Moore could earn her fifth nomination if she receives a nod for Maggie’s Plan. Moore stands at four nominations and two wins at the moment.

Because of that $20 million budget limited, Oscar’s Best Picture frontrunner, La La Land, is not expected to show up here. Although, the actual budget for the film is unknown at this time so don’t be too shocked if it somehow sneaks in. If it does, it will blow up everything. The lead acting categories feel especially tough this year, with Oscar hopefuls and indie favorites going up against each other. Female Lead is, as it is this year with Oscar, heavily stacked.

The 2017 Film Independent Spirit Awards nominations will be announced tomorrow, November 22nd, by Édgar Ramírez and Jenny Slate and the awards will be broadcast exclusively on IFC on February 25, 2017, LIVE at 2:00 pm PT / 5:00 pm ET. Subscribe to their YouTube channel to catch the entire event or watch to whole thing in real time on Facebook Live.

Here are my predictions for the 2017 Independent Spirit Award nominations with alternates/spoilers.

Best Film
20th Century Women
Jackie
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Paterson
ALT: American Honey, Hell or High Water or Loving

Best Director
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Robert Eggers, The Witch
ALT: David McKenzie, Hell or High Water or Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Male Lead
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Adam Driver, Paterson
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Parker Sawyers, Southside With You
ALT: Daniel Radcliffe, Swiss Army Man or Anton Yelchin, Green Room

Best Female Lead
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Royalty Hightower, The Fits
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
ALT: Tika Sumpter, Southside With You; Sasha Lane, American Honey

Best Supporting Male
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
Shia Labeouf, American Honey
Craig Robinson, Morris From America
ALT: Glen Powell, Everybody Wants Some!!

Best Supporting Female
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Molly Shannon, Other People
Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea
ALT: Melanie Lynskey, The Intervention

Best Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Little Men
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Paterson
ALT: 20th Century Women

First Screenplay
Childhood of a Leader
The Fits
Other People
Southside With You
Swiss Army Man

First Feature
The Fits
Indignation
Other People
Southside with You
The Witch
ALT: Swiss Army Man

Best Cinematography
American Honey
Jackie
Moonlight
The Neon Demon
The Witch
ALT: Green Room

Best Editing
American Honey
Green Room
Hell or High Water
Moonlight
Swiss Army Man
ALT: Jackie

Robert Altman Award – Nocturnal Animals