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While the top five in Best Actor this month is the same as last month, Denzel Washington (Fences) eeks up over Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) to take over the #2 spot by one point. Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation), in his directorial debut, still reigns at #1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Andrew Garfield (Silence) maintain good scores at #3 and #4, respectively.
The strength of La La Land finds Ryan Gosling in contention and two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks (Sully) and newcomer Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk) round out the bottom vote getters.
Best Actor is a wider field than Best Actress (again) with a number of performances from the ‘Other Contenders’ section able to break in. High on that list would be Michael Keaton as Ray Kroc in The Founder from The Weinstein Company. Although he wasn’t able to shore up a follow-up nomination for Spotlight after Birdman, this biopic could be his ride. Lack of faith in The Weinstein Company and their flip-flop release schedule for the film aren’t giving us much to go on though. If Fox Searchlight manages to find a place for Wilson then Woody Harrelson could be in. Colin Firth in The Mercy would be competitive if the film had any festival dates or a distributor but it’s looking bleak. Same goes for Bryan Cranston in Wakefield. A Best Actor nominee just this last season for Trumbo, the multiple Emmy winner could easily find an ‘afterglow’ nomination if his film gets picked up.
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #40: Toronto and Venice Festival Lineups, Updated Oscar Predictions
I’m going to keep a close eye on Miles Teller in Bleed for This. Although boxing films haven’t been a good place for Best Actor contenders recently, Bleed for This is Open Road Films’ #1 this season. As they are the reigning Best Picture Oscar winner (Spotlight) you can’t count the film or its performances out. Add to it that it’s a true story and landed a prime Thanksgiving release date and Teller could be in.
Here are the August Oscar predictions for Best Actor from The Gold Rush Gang:
OTHER CONTENDERS
Ben Affleck – Live by Night
Jim Carrey – True Crimes
Jason Clarke – HHhH
Bryan Cranston – Wakefield
Alden Ehrenreich – The Yellow Birds
Michael Fassbender – The Light Between Oceans
Colin Firth – The Mercy
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals
Woody Harrelson – LBJ
Woody Harrelson – Wilson
Michael Keaton – The Founder
Ben Mendelsohn – Una
David Oyelowo – A United Kingdom
Dev Patel – Lion
Brad Pitt – Allied
Chris Pratt – Passengers
Will Smith – Collateral Beauty
Miles Teller – Bleed For This
Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:
BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
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