2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (July)

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Best Actor is historically a category that is closely linked to Best Picture. Not always the winner but almost always at least a nomination. It also favors biopics or real life people at the center. Then there’s also the very old statistic of a Best Actor lineup that always includes at least one first-timer. When you look at those three it’s clear why Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation) is and remains our #1; he hits all three. That puts him into a status of being ‘locked’ in a way that no other Best Actor contender can touch right now. That he’s also the African-American writer and director of his film and a recent invitee to The Academy as a part of its huge diversity push this year, what you have is an undeniable frontrunner.

Elsewhere, the top 5 this month is the same lineup (and same placement) as last month with the top four all making small bumps up in point total. Joel Edgerton (Loving) however, drops and finds himself within one point from a three-way tie that includes Colin Firth (The Mercy; formerly Deep Water), Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk) and Tom Hanks (Sully). Any one of those guys could replace Edgerton at any moment, his position is that precarious.  But, with Edgerton playing a real-life person that should give him an edge over at least Alwyn. Firth and Hanks (both previous winners in this category) are playing real life characters. Either of them could even find themselves replacing Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Denzel Washington (Fences) or Andrew Garfield (Silence) – all of whom play fictional characters. I don’t mean to put too heavy an emphasis on real vs. fictional characters but when you look at the category as a whole you do start to create a balance of character types, Best Picture correlation, real vs. fictional and newcomer vs. previous nominee or winner.

Digging through the ‘Other Contenders’ list for spoilers doesn’t give us too much to work with (but it is only July) but we’re definitely keeping an eye on afterglow nominations for Bryan Cranston (Wakefield) and Michael Keaton (The Founder) to make a dent in this group. Ryan Gosling could turn into a thing for La La Land but right now the only acting support for that film seems to be for Emma Stone.

Here are the July Oscar predictions for Best Actor from The Gold Rush Gang:

OTHER CONTENDERS
Jim Carrey – True Crimes
Jason Clarke – HHhH
Bryan Cranston – Wakefield
Alden Ehrenreich – Rules Don’t Apply
Alden Ehrenreich – The Yellow Birds
Michael Fassbender – The Light Between Oceans
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals
Michael Keaton – The Founder
Woody Harrelson – LBJ
Ben Mendelsohn – Una
David Oyelowo – A United Kingdom
Dev Patel – Lion
Brad Pitt – Allied
Brad Pitt – War Machine
Chris Pratt – Passengers
Will Smith – Collateral Beauty
Miles Teller – Bleed For This
Jacob Tremblay – The Book of Henry

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE