2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (August)

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It’s another month and another step closer for Viola Davis (Fences) to be only the second Best Actress Oscar winner in Academy Awards history. Davis is currently at #1 across the board with the Gold Rush Gang, a place I expect her to stay at for all of the Oscar season. Is it risky to call it this early? Maybe. But then there have been times when an actor and role are so secure so early that it’s not that risky at all. Think Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables. The mere announcement of her casting in March set her on the path to the win. Daniel Day-Lewis as Lincoln was locked nearly a year in advance. For Davis, a Tony winner for this role, she has a narrative that is virtually unstoppable.

Despite Davis’s security, there is a real race in the #2-4 spots. Currently they are separated by just three points. Falling hard, just as everything with her film has, Ruth Negga in Loving holds onto #2 but now just barely. Annette Bening (20th Century Women) is going to give her chase as her film was just announced as the New York Film Festival Centerpiece. Emma Stone in La La Land moves up (just as her movie bounces up this month) and with the film showing up at Venice (as the opener), Toronto and also likely at Telluride, she’s going to be a strong player this season.

LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #40: Toronto and Venice Festival Lineups, Updated Oscar Predictions

5th place is actually quite competitive. Amy Adams lands there with her film Arrival (which moves up from last month’s #6 spot) which is looking to hit the three major fall fests. It’s already in at Venice and Toronto and we’re just waiting on Telluride to announce.  Right now Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) is a bit of a placeholder, as Streep often is, but her film looks to be a critical and box office success so she should never, ever be counted out. But there is certainly room for any number of actresses to take that spot. Taraji P. Henson could be looking at a second Oscar nomination (and her first in Best Actress) with Hidden Figures. If EuropaCorp can find the cash to give Jessica Chastain a real campaign, the gun control drama Miss Sloane could be her ticket. Sony Pictures Classics is pinning their hopes on the celebrated but never nominated Isabelle Huppert in Elle. She could find herself in a Charlotte Rampling situation and grab that spot. Many feel Emily Blunt is a contender for The Girl on the Train but each day seems less and less likely. She’s probably good for a Golden Globe nomination though, they love her there. With Jackie showing up at Venice, Oscar-winner Natalie Portman could be back in the game. If they film finds a distributor and gets released this year, that is. Rooney Mara has three movies at Toronto this year but only one with distribution and a release date this year, Lion. But is she lead or supporting? Jennifer Lawrence in Passengers shouldn’t be counted out either, unless that film is just a box office play for Sony. That is, of course, if the film is even released this year.

Here are the August Oscar predictions for Best Actress from The Gold Rush Gang:

OTHER CONTENDERS
Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals
Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train
Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
Marion Cotillard – Allied
Rebecca Hall – Christine
Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers
Rooney Mara – Lion
Rooney Mara – The Secret Scripture
Rooney Mara – Una
Cynthia Nixon – A Quiet Passion
Michelle Pfeiffer – Beat-Up Little Seagull
Rosamund Pike – A United Kingdom
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Kristen Stewart – Café Society
Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans
Rachel Weisz – Denial

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING