2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (August)

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For the first time since we began the 2017 Oscar predictions in March we have a new Best Picture frontrunner. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk overtakes Silence this month but just by a single point. Silence bumps down to #2 where it’s now tied with The Birth of a Nation. If you look at these point totals compared to last month though it’s not all good news; this month’s #1 is a full 10 points lower than last month’s. Silence is down because we literally haven’t seen a new production still, have no word on even a trailer and without much prospect of being seen at any upcoming festivals. The only thing we have is Silence producer Gastón Pavlovich’s tweet from last week saying “In a couple of hours I’ll be watching the first cut from SILENCE, accompanied by M. Scorsese. Looking forward to see the result of so much work and sacrifice.” Obviously this is hopeful but not much to go on.

Like last month, La La Land continues to make huge strides, moving up another two spots to land in the top 5. It’s opening Venice, playing Toronto and most definitely going to show up at Telluride and that is positioning the film to be a major frontrunner. Nearly all recent Best Picture Oscar winners have played Telluride and while that is a trend and not a rule it’s something that can’t be underestimated. Again, the strength of La La Land isn’t just in moving up two spots it’s more that month to month its point total jumped a huge 44 points. Right now, this is the film to watch.

LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #40: Toronto and Venice Festival Lineups, Updated Oscar Predictions

Manchester by the Sea stays locked at #5 while Loving keeps taking hits, dropping to #6. Arrival (#8) is making some noise after it showed up in the Toronto and Venice announcements and also looks locked for a Telluride appearance. Elsewhere, Lion (#10) will be at Toronto (check out a huge batch of new pics from the film) and 20th Century Women will be the Centerpiece film at the New York Film Festival.

Here are the August Oscar predictions for Best Picture from The Gold Rush Gang:

OTHER CONTENDERS
The 13th
Allied
Deepwater Horizon
The Founder
The Girl on the Train
HHhH
Live by Night
The Lobster
Nocturnal Animals
Passengers

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE