2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (December) – La La Land Still #1 but Moonlight and Fences Rise

[divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Well, we’re finally here – the kickoff of Oscar season via the critics and industry nominations and awards. It was a big week, with the New York (NYFCC) and Los Angeles (LAFCA) critics announcing, the National Board of Review (NBR) winners and even the Critics’ Choice Movie Award nominees. Individually they don’t make a huge impact but collectively are what can write a narrative for a film’s Oscar success.

Yesterday, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) anointed Moonlight as the Best Picture of 2016, also giving the film Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Best Cinematography.  Moonlight also picked up the Gotham Award win for Best Film (as well as Screenplay and Ensemble), a Supporting Actress win from the National Board of Review for Naomie Harris and Ali snagged the supporting actor trophy from the other coast’s big group, the New York Film Critics Circle. A huge coup for him, to be sure.

LISTEN – Oscar Podcast #44: Viola Davis, Moonlight, Billy Lynn and Oscar Predictions with special guest Joey Nolfi

La La Land won the top prize from NYFCC (its only win) and Manchester by the Sea topped the NBR. The last few films of the season have finally screened as well: Fences, Hidden Figures, and Silence. Hidden Figures was met with mostly tepid responses and many feel, myself included, that its late release won’t give the film enough time to become a box office hit before the nomination voting period begins. It’s a good film but really needed either a late summer release or a fall festival run to carve out a place for itself. It could still do that but its chances seem slim now. Fences was met with strong reviews, most especially for its stars Denzel Washington (who also directed) and Viola Davis. Martin Scorsese’s Silence, after a 15-month post-production period, released its poster, trailer, and first screenings and its response has largely been positive but with some hesitation. The hesitation being some of the words used to describe it were “torturous,” “brutal” and “challenging.” That isn’t meant to scare, just that it’s probably going to be divisive. For what it’s worth, the LA Times’ Glenn Whipp calls it “a film for the ages.”

Arrival has seen a bit of a surge, it moves up two spots this month from #8 last month. The aforementioned Fences moves up into the top 5 and Moonlight is now a top 3 contender.

LISTEN – Oscar Podcast #45: Jackie, Independent Spirit Nominations, the Silence trailer and the return of Joey Nolfi

So what have we seen go down since the avalanche of awards season started? Jackie, for one. The film has made nary a dent so far, not even getting an NBR Best Picture nor a Critics Choice nomination, a surprise. The film did score well with the Independent Spirit Award noms, landing in Best Feature there. Lion takes a tumble this month, from 7th to 9th and Loving drops off entirely.

No change for last month’s #1, La La Land. It enjoys a second month with a perfect score of 100.

Here are the 2017 Oscar predictions for Best Picture from The Gold Rush Gang for December:

OTHER CONTENDERS
20th Century Women (A24)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Hidden Figures (Fox 2000)
Loving (Focus Features)
Patriots Day (CBS Films)

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (the shortlist)