2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (November)

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October brought the biggest changes and upsets in Best Picture we’ve all year. Early frontrunner Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk screened in all of its 4k, 3D, 120fps glory to almost universal pans. Like, people viscerally hated it. At the film’s Q&A at the New York Film Festival, the cast and Lee himself were visibly shaken at the film and the response to it, and not in a good way. This was more than enough for the Gold Rush Gang to react and react it did – after another month in the #2 position last month the film now falls off our Best Picture list entirely, not earning a single 1-10 vote. That was a more precipitous drop than The Birth of a Nation after the fallout of director Nate Parker’s past. But, we’re getting closer to real awards season and there isn’t time to give second chances. That said, there is sometimes a disconnect between festival audiences and critics and once a film hits the screens of Academy members things can change. It’s unlikely that the majority of Academy members that see Billy Lynn will be seeing it as Lee intended and it may play better in a more simple, traditional 2D format as a straightforward drama instead of a technological marvel. We’ll have to wait and see if word of mouth from guild and Academy screenings can save the film from its current predicament.

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What also happened in the wake of Billy‘s fall was the rise of many other films. Jackie and Moonlight, both of which screened at more film festivals in October to continued rapturous reviews, are both solidly in the top 5 now. Moonlight opened two weeks ago in a very limited release to the highest per-theater average of the year and one of the highest of all time for a live action film. Its second weekend in a limited expansion was also a huge success.

Manchester by the Sea also saw a bump from the demise of Billy Lynn as it is now the new #2. La La Land sits in the top spot as an unmovable force with a perfect score of 100. Silence actually improves a bit as well now that we have an official Christmas release for the film and a trailer which is supposed to arrive as soon as this week. Fences and Lion also see healthy bumps from last month with the latter hitting multiple festivals and winning a few audience awards along the way.

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The bottom half of the list looks mostly the same and it’s going to be tough to hash out what eventually makes it into Best Picture (or even how many will). Hidden Figures was apparently locked for the Closing Night of AFI Fest but then mysteriously was replaced by Patriots Day and now there is no word if it will be screening at the fest at all. It’s definitely a film that needs that vehicle to begin a campaign. It’s a bit of a mystery if Live By Night, and Warner Bros choice to give it an Oscar-qualifying release was worth it or not when they have a surer thing in Sully. Arrival is, for my money, not a solid Best Picture candidate unless it makes some serious bank, which it well could. It won’t be Gravity; it could end up like Contact with better reviews.

Here are the 2017 Oscar predictions for Best Picture from The Gold Rush Gang for November:

OTHER CONTENDERS
13TH (Netflix)
20th Century Women (A24)
Allied (Paramount)
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Sony)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight)
Bleed For This (Open Road Films)
The Founder (The Weinstein Company)
Gold (The Weinstein Company)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
Passengers (Sony)
Patriots Day (CBS Films)

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (the shortlist)