2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (September)

Erik Anderson September 5, 2016

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Boy, can a lot change in a month. Last month, The Birth of a Nation was tied with Silence at #2 for Best Picture but with the fallout of his 1999 rape controversy being at the forefront of the film’s press and Parker handling it quite disastrously (as is Fox Searchlight) the film plummets this month. As always, our predictions are updated throughout the month and then locked at the end of the month for ‘official’ predictions. With the Toronto Film Festival coming up and the film appearing there, it’s possible the reception could be positive and we could see a turnaround for the film ahead of its October debut. It’s Oscar season, anything could happen.

The big story here, as it was with the Forum Oscar Poll results revealed this morning, is La La Land. The romantic musical dramedy has sashayed its way to the #1 spot with the fierceness of a paso doble and the grace of a Viennese waltz. The film opened the Venice Film Festival to rapturous reviews that only continued into Telluride. With Telluride being the now go-to festival for your Oscar-winning Best Picture, we’re looking at the new frontrunner.

That doesn’t mean a film like Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is out of the race, by any means. It hasn’t screened in full yet and it’s going to premiere at the New York Film Festival in October ahead of its November bow. The anticipation for this film, both as a film and an Oscar contender, couldn’t be higher. The same goes for Martin Scorsese’s Silence, which has proven to be the most appropriate film title of this awards season and we’ve heard and seen so little of the film. We only have the same three production stills, no trailer, no festival announcements and only recently now know that the first cut is 195 minutes long. Rumor is the final cut will be done by October but it’s all but assured that runtime will have to be trimmed down to three hours – just as Paramount requested for The Wolf of Wall Street.

Manchester by the Sea moves up one spot to #4 and has really secured its place in the Best Picture Oscar race. If Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions can keep up this fall festival buzz the film is a surefire top 5 player.

LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #42: Fall Festivals Kick Off Oscar Season with La La Land, Moonlight, Arrival, Nocturnal Animals

Other big movers this month include another highly anticipated fall release, Moonlight. Just ahead of its Telluride debut we got the incredible poster and trailer and the response this week was so deafeningly strong that it currently sits at a 100 on Metacritic. It moves up five spots and a huge 37 points from last month. Arrival, which scored slots at Venice and Telluride, also sees a bump this month with lots of good ink for director Denis Villeneuve and Best Actress contender Amy Adams.

Speaking of arrivals, two news make the list this month; Nocturnal Animals (another festival hit last week) and the surprise sleeper of the summer, Hell or High Water. It remains to be seen if CBS Films can mount a proper Oscar campaign for the film (they couldn’t for Inside Llewyn Davis a few years ago) but the film’s huge critical success and ongoing box office could make it undeniable.

Here are the September Oscar predictions for Best Picture from The Gold Rush Gang:

OTHER CONTENDERS
The 13th
20th Century Women
Allied
American Pastoral
Bleed For This
The Founder
The Girl on the Train
Gold
Hidden Figures
Live by Night
The Lobster
Passengers

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.