2017 Oscar Predictions – February 10th

Erik Anderson February 10, 2017

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The BAFTAs are this weekend with an update to follow. Click here for updated 2017 Oscar winner predictions from The Gold Rush Gang in all categories. Here is the state of the Oscar race right now, February 10th, 2017.

	BEST PICTURE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	100
2	Moonlight	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	90
3	Manchester By the Sea	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	80
4	Lion	6	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	6	5	62
5	Arrival	4	6	4	6	4	5	6	5	5	4	61
6	Hidden Figures	5	4	7	5	8	7	5	7	7	8	47
7	Hacksaw Ridge	7	7	6	7	6	6	7	8	4	6	46
8	Hell or High Water	9	8	8	9	7	8	8	6	8	7	32
9	Fences	8	9	9	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	22

	DIRECTING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Damien Chazelle, La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Barry Jenkins, Moonlight	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	39
3	Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea	4	5	3	3	2	3	4	3	3	3	27
4	Denis Villeneuve, Arrival	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	23
5	Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	11

	ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	48
2	Denzel Washington, Fences	1	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	42
3	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	30
4	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge	4	5	4	5	4	4	5	5	4	4	16
5	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	5	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	5	5	14

	ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Emma Stone, La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Isabelle Huppert, Elle	2	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	35
2	Natalie Portman, Jackie	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	35
4	Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	20
5	Ruth Negga, Loving	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Mahershala Ali, Moonlight	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	37
3	Dev Patel, Lion	2	2	3	3	4	3	2	3	3	3	32
4	Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea	4	5	4	4	3	4	5	4	5	4	18
5	Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals	5	4	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	5	13

	ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Viola Davis, Fences	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	40
3	Naomie Harris, Moonlight	5	4	3	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	24
3	Nicole Kidman, Lion	4	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	24
5	Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	12

	WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Moonlight	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Arrival	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2	2	38
3	Lion	4	4	3	2	3	3	4	3	3	3	28
4	Hidden Figures	3	3	4	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	24
5	Fences	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Manchester By the Sea	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	40
3	Hell or High Water	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	29
4	The Lobster	5	4	4	4	5	4	3	5	4	4	18
5	20th Century Women	4	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	5	5	13

	FILM EDITING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Moonlight	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	37
3	Arrival	2	2	3	3	3	4	2	4	3	4	30
4	Hacksaw Ridge	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	4	3	23
5	Hell or High Water	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	CINEMATOGRAPHY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Moonlight	3	2	2	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	37
3	Lion	4	3	5	2	4	2	3	3	3	3	28
4	Arrival	2	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	5	4	23
5	Silence	5	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	12

	PRODUCTION DESIGN	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Arrival	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	35
2	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	35
4	Hail, Caesar!	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	18
5	Passengers	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	12

	COSTUME DESIGN	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Jackie	2	2	1	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	45
2	La La Land	1	1	2	3	1	3	2	1	2	2	42
3	Florence Foster Jenkins	3	3	3	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	33
4	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	19
5	Allied	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	11

	MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Star Trek Beyond	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	A Man Called Ove	2	3	2	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	35
2	Suicide Squad	3	2	3	2	3	3	2	2	2	3	35

	MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Lion	2	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	37
3	Moonlight	3	2	2	3	4	4	3	4	3	4	28
4	Jackie	4	4	4	4	2	3	4	3	4	3	25
5	Passengers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	“City Of Stars,” La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana	2	2	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	36
3	“Audition,” La La Land	3	3	2	3	3	2	2	2	3	3	34
4	“Can’t Stop The Feeling!” Trolls	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	20
5	“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	SOUND EDITING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Hacksaw Ridge	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	48
2	Arrival	1	3	2	3	1	3	2	3	2	2	38
3	La La Land	3	2	3	2	3	2	3	4	3	3	32
4	Deepwater Horizon	4	5	4	4	5	4	5	2	5	4	18
5	Sully	5	4	5	5	4	5	4	5	4	5	14

	SOUND MIXING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Hacksaw Ridge	2	2	3	2	2	2	3	2	3	2	37
3	Arrival	3	3	2	3	3	3	2	4	2	3	32
4	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	21
5	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	VISUAL EFFECTS	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	The Jungle Book	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	4	2	4	2	2	2	5	3	3	2	31
3	Doctor Strange	5	3	3	4	3	4	2	2	2	3	29
4	Deepwater Horizon	2	5	2	3	4	3	3	4	5	4	25
5	Kubo and the Two Strings	3	4	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	5	15

	ANIMATED FEATURE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Zootopia	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Kubo and the Two Strings	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	39
3	Moana	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	3	31
4	My Life as a Zucchini	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	20
5	The Red Turtle	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	DOCUMENTARY FEATURE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	OJ: Made In America	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	49
2	13TH	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	1	2	39
3	I Am Not Your Negro	3	3	3	3	4	2	2	3	4	3	30
4	Life, Animated	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	5	4	20
5	Fire At Sea	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	5	12

	FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Toni Erdmann (Germany)	2	2	1	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	44
2	The Salesman (Iran)	1	1	4	1	3	4	1	3	1	3	38
3	Land Of Mine (Denmark)	3	4	2	3	4	2	3	2	3	2	32
4	A Man Called Ove (Sweden)	4	3	3	4	1	3	4	4	4	4	26
5	Tanna (Australia)	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

	SHORTS (DOCUMENTARY)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	The White Helmets	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	39
2	Joe’s Violin	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	1	32
3	4.1 Miles	3	3	4	4	3	4	3	3	21
4	Watani: My Homeland	4	5	3	3	5	2	5	5	16
5	Extremis	5	4	5	5	4	5	4	4	12

	SHORTS (ANIMATED)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Piper	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	39
2	Pearl	1	2	2	2	4	3	2	4	28
3	Blind Vaysha	3	3	3	4	3	2	3	2	25
4	Borrowed Time	4	4	4	3	2	5	4	3	19
5	Pear Cider & Cigarettes	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	9

	SHORTS (LIVE ACTION)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Timecode	2	2	1	1	1	1	2	32
2	Sing	5	3	2	2	2	2	1	25
3	Silent Nights	1	1	4	3	4	3	4	22
4	Ennemis Interiors	3	5	3	4	3	4	3	17
5	La Femme et le TGV	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	9

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.