2017 Oscar Predictions: Post-Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild

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The Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild both gave out their awards last weekend and La La Land‘s win at the PGA came as a surprise to no one but Hidden Figures besting Moonlight at SAG was. Not a shock, really, the film is a huge populist hit and SAG loves that. It also loves Best Picture frontrunners in its top category so with La La Land not nominated there Moonlight became the de facto leader. Looking at history, PGA and Best Picture have matched up 19/27 times. SAG and Best Picture have matched up 11/22 times, including four of the last six years. That puts the PGA at a higher ratio of winners also hitting Best Picture, keeping La La Land out in front by our estimations. But, the SAG win for Hidden Figures does raise its profile and ranking significantly. It’s just that with only two other Oscar nominations (Supporting Actress – Octavia Spencer and Adapted Screenplay) there isn’t much of a path for the film to give us a shocking upset.

The Directors Guild of America announces their winner on February 4th and there seems to be very little in the way of Damien Chazelle (La La Land) winning here. With Moonlight losing PGA and SAG there isn’t much of a path for anyone else to triumph. But, if someone like Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) or Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) does, boy do we have a race on our hands. If that were to happen we’d have another 2016 on our hands with a different film winning the top 3 guilds.

Here’s where it gets really interesting. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) has been the perceived frontrunner to win Best Actor. He won the Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globe but now he we are finally at the guild level and what happens? He loses to Denzel Washington (Fences). We now have a real two-horse race. Now, there are a few reasons this upset might have happened. One, Washington, despite being a two-time Oscar winner, had never won SAG before. His first Oscar win (1989’s Glory) came before the inception of the Screen Actors Guild awards. His second, 2001’s Training Day, found him bested by Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind at SAG. I mentioned this before, commenting that a Washington win would make sense in the way that Meryl Streep won SAG for Doubt. She herself had never won SAG and it was a prime opportunity for her. She didn’t go on to win the Oscar, though. Washington, however, now has a very good chance to earn his third. The other reason Affleck may have lost is that, despite the six Oscar nominations for his film and his broad critical support, the sexual assault charges and settlements in his past are not sitting well with voters. Much has been made of the imbalance of reporting of those incidences between Affleck and Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation). When Parker’s past came back to haunt him it absolutely sunk his film’s box office and awards chances like a rock. Affleck, on the other hand, has seen award after award and very good box office. But, with SAG, we could see the tide turned. We move on to BAFTA next, which presents its own potential turn as Washington is not nominated there and Affleck is. If Affleck loses there, it’s over for him. Fun fact: 18/22 SAG winners here have gone on to win the Oscar. Even more interesting though is that it happened four years in a row:

2000: Benicio del Toro (Traffic) won Lead at SAG (besting eventual Oscar winner Russell Crowe in Gladiator) and then Supporting at the Oscars.
2001: Daniel-Day Lewis (Gangs of New York) lost the Oscar to Adrien Brody (The Pianist).
2002: Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind) lost the Oscar to Denzel Washington (Training Day).
2003: Johnny Depp (The Pirates of the Caribbean) lost the Oscar to Sean Penn (Mystic River).

With Emma Stone (La La Land) winning SAG this weekend, the chances for Natalie Portman (Jackie) to upset just got really small. In fact, many think Portman isn’t even the runner-up at this point but that Isabelle Huppert (Elle) is. The Gold Rush Gang is split 5/5 on this. But, we’re all in agreement that Stone is the undisputable leader.

Despite losing the Golden Globe, Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) won SAG and that is exactly what he needed to put himself back in the driver’s seat. 13/27 SAG supporting actor winners have gone on to repeat at the Oscars. In this decade only two haven’t; Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) lost to Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), who was not SAG-nominated and last year Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) won SAG but was not Oscar-nominated.

With the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe and SAG under her belt, Viola Davis (Fences) is utterly unstoppable. It would take a shocking force of nature we’ve rarely (if ever) have seen to find an upset here. She’s even the film’s sole BAFTA nomination. She isn’t losing that, either.