2017 Oscars: What’s Making the Foreign Language Film Shortlist?

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The shortlist of nine films that will be in the running for the five spots at the Oscars is announcing tomorrow and here’s what AwardsWatch thinks is getting in.

But first, since we have the Golden Globe nominations as a comparison it should be noted how generally bad they are in terms of aligning with the Academy. First, as most know, the Golden Globes don’t have the restrictions of submissions or one film per country rules. They can do what they want and it often gives us nominees that aren’t even eligible for the Academy Award. This year could be different. Although we do have a nominee that is ineligible, four of the five nominated by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are and they also happen to all be high-profile frontrunners.

When you look at the last 10 years of Golden Globes and the Oscars you’ll notice how rarely they go more than 2/5. Just once, actually, in 2012. Sometimes it’s 0/5 (like 2007).

Italics represent films nominated for the Golden Globe and making it to the Oscar shortlist. In bold references films nominated for the Golden Globe and the Academy Award.

2015
The Brand New Testament
The Club
The Fencer
Mustang
Son of Saul (won Globe and Oscar)

2014
Force majeure
Ida (won the Oscar)
Leviathan (won the Globe)
Gett
Tangerines

2013
Blue is the Warmest Color – INELIGIBLE
The Great Beauty (won Globe and Oscar)
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises – INELIGIBLE

2012
Amour (won Globe and Oscar)
The Intouchables
Kon Tiki
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone

2011
The Flowers of War
In the Land of Blood and Honey – INELIGIBLE
The Kid with a Bike – INELIGIBLE
A Separation (won Globe and Oscar)
The Skin I Live In

2010
Biutiful
The Concert – INELIGIBLE
The Edge
I Am Love – INELIGIBLE
In a Better World (won Oscar)

2009
Baaria
Broken Embraces – INELIGIBLE
A Prophet
The Maid – INELIGIBLE
The White Ribbon (won the Globe)

2008
The Baader Meinhof Complex
Everlasting Moments
Gomorrah
I’ve Loved You So Long
Waltz With Bashir (won the Globe)

2007
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
The Diving Bell and The Butterfly – INELIGIBLE (won the Globe)
The Kite Runner – INELIGIBLE
Lust, Caution – INELIGIBLE
Persepolis

2006
Apocalypto – INELIGIBLE
Letters from Iwo Jima – INELIGIBLE (won the Globe)
The Lives of Others (won Oscar)
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver

This year we have:

Divines (France)
Elle (France)
Neruda (Chile)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Only Divines is ineligible here as is France’s official submission for the Academy Awards so we could very well see the other four on the shortlist. Here is the snapshot of the Gold Rush Gang predictions to make the shortlist tomorrow: