This is starting to look like the summer months of Best Actress. It’s a stagnant month in Best Actor as it’s the same top 5 and all in the same spot. But let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) still has a perfect score of 100, Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread – trailer here) drops a bit in point total and interestingly, it’s #3 Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) that picks them up. He’s now within a single point of the #2 spot. Tom Hanks (The Post) falls a bit and Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) gains one despite his film’s weak box office.
The big moves come in the 6-10 tier. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) is building steam but once the junkets and red carpets start with his Instagram dalliance with a 17-year old (which, for the record, he didn’t follow up with) come back to haunt him in the age of intense Hollywood scrutiny?
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) makes a big leap all the way to #7 on the continued strength of his film and two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) inches back up ever so slowly. Chadwick Boseman (Marshall) also moves up one. Robert Pattinson (Good Time) proves he wasn’t a one-month wonder and actually moves up to #10. He recently earned a Best Actor nomination from the Gotham Awards alongside Kaluuya and Franco (his film also earned a Best Feature nom).
Big falls this month though for Andrew Garfield (Breathe). With a film on life support, his chances of survival in this race get bleaker by the day. Jeremy Renner (Wind River) looked like he was on his way to a possible nomination only to be a victim of the Wienstein fallout’s collateral damage. He’s off the chart completely. Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying) also drops down to the Other Contenders list and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Current War) is gone completely as his film is now gone from TWC’s 2017 slate.
James McAvoy is the month’s sole debut, in the box office smash Split. He was critically lauded for his portrayal as a man with 23 distinct personalities. If Universal wants to push him they certainly could, but they also have Kaluuya to campaign.
2018 Oscar Predictions (November): Best Actress | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Foreign Language Film | Animated Feature | Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay | Film Editing and Cinematography | Production Design and Costume Design | Visual Effects and Makeup & Hairstyling | Sound Editing and Sound Mixing | Original Score and Original Song
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Actor for November from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| BEST ACTOR | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 85 |
| 3 | Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 84 |
| 4 | Tom Hanks – The Post | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 68 |
| 5 | Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
| 6 | James Franco – The Disaster Artist | 8 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 49 |
| 7 | Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 27 | ||
| 9 | Andrew Garfield – Breathe | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | |
| 10 | Robert Pattinson – Good Time | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 12 | ||||
| 11 | Chadwick Boseman – Marshall | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||||||
| 12 | James McAvoy – Split | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||||||||
| 13 | Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman | 9 | 2 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
Ben Stiller – Brad’s Status
Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
Christian Bale – Hostiles
Colin Farrell – The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Domhnall Gleeson – Goodbye Christopher Robin
Donald Sutherland – The Leisure Seeker
Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Jeremy Renner – Wind River
Liam Neeson – Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Mark Wahlberg – All the Money in the World
Matt Damon – Downsizing
Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying
Woody Harrelson – LBJ
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