For the first time since our 2018 Oscar predictions started way back in March, Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) notches a score of 99 vs his usual perfect score of 100. This despite the film debuting at Telluride this weekend to nonstop chatter of ‘Gary Oldman is the Best Actor frontrunner’ talk (even though we’ve all known that for months). Sometimes though, especially in Oscar predicting, seeing is believing and perceived frontrunners on paper either solidify that position of vacate it after mediocre reviews.
Spots 2-4 remain the same with Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) and Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying) holding court. Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) rebounds to #5 but Tom Hanks (The Post) is nipping at his heels. One thing that could hobble Cranston is mumbling that his co-star Steve Carell might be pushed lead as well. Conflicting reports tell two different stories of that placement so we’ll have to wait on Amazon to make an official announcement.
Christian Bale’s debut last month was no fluke and his film, Hostiles, premiered at Telluride to very good reviews. He moves up from #13 to #9 this month even though the film is still without a distributor or release date (but it does have a trailer). The window of opportunity to be picked up and released this year is shrinking by the day and there’s a chance whoever does grab it will hold it for 2018. Not likely Paramount though, which will release Adam McKay’s Backseat starring Bale as former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Most of last month’s lower tier contenders like Andrew Garfield (Breathe), Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger), Chadwick Boseman (Marshall), Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker) and Javier Bardem (mother!) don’t have much wiggle room. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) bumps up four spots after debuting last month.
A pair of new entries this month: Jeremy Renner in Wind River (in what I think is the best performance of his career) and Liam Neeson in Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Actor for September from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| BEST ACTOR | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 99 |
| 2 | Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 84 |
| 3 | Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 82 |
| 4 | Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 68 |
| 5 | Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 58 |
| 6 | Tom Hanks – The Post | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 56 |
| 7 | Andrew Garfield – Breathe | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 41 |
| 8 | Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Christian Bale – Hostiles | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | ||||||
| 10 | Chadwick Boseman – Marshall | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | ||||||
| 10 | Donald Sutherland – The Leisure Seeker | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | ||||
| 12 | Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out | 9 | 10 | 3 | ||||||||
| 13 | Javier Bardem – mother! | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 13 | Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 15 | Jeremy Renner – Wind River | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 15 | Liam Neeson – Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Ben Stiller – Brad’s Status | ||||||||||||
| Colin Farrell – The Killing of a Sacred Deer | ||||||||||||
| Daniel Craig – Kings | ||||||||||||
| Domhnall Gleeson – Goodbye Christopher Robin | ||||||||||||
| Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| James Franco – The Disaster Artist | ||||||||||||
| Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool | ||||||||||||
| Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here | ||||||||||||
| Jonathan Pryce – The Wife | ||||||||||||
| Mark Wahlberg – All the Money in the World | ||||||||||||
| Matt Damon – Downsizing | ||||||||||||
| Michael Shannon – The Current War | ||||||||||||
| Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying | ||||||||||||
| Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes | ||||||||||||
| Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project |
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