2018 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (October) – Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan Both at #1

Erik Anderson October 2, 2017

Stop me if you think you’ve heard this one before.

Just as in Best Picture, the Best Director race is tied at #1 and by the directors of the same films. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) and Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) hold the top spot for October.

Steven Spielberg remains at #3 with The Post but with a 7-point hit. Call Me By Your Name‘s Luca Guadagnino holds on to the #4 spot but also with a point hit. Presumably, much of those can be attributed the meteoric rise of Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. He emerges from the Other Contenders list in September to land a top 5 this month. Alternatively, last month’s #5, Dan Gilroy (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) crashes and burns, falling off the chart entirely, literally switching spots with McDonagh. That’s how volatile this season is.

Sean Baker (The Florida Project), Jordan Peele (Get Out) and Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) keep their 6-8 spots but Denis Villeneuve moves up, just as Blade Runner 2049 did in Best Picture. Richard Linklater falls hard like Last Flag Flying did and while Dee Rees (Mudbound) loses Katheryn Bigelow (Detroit) as the only other female on the chart, she is joined by another, Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, the month’s sole debut.

Alexander Payne (Downsizing) and Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck) also fall of the chart this month.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Best Director for October from the Gold Rush Gang. Follow all predictions as they are updated live throughout the month right here.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

	BEST DIRECTOR	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	94
1	Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk	3	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	3	1	94
3	Steven Spielberg – The Post	2	5	3	3	4	3	3	4	2	5	76
4	Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name	8	4	4	5	3	8	4	3	4	4	63
5	Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	4	3	8	4	6	4	5	6	6	3	61

6	Sean Baker – The Florida Project	7	7	5	6	5	6	9	8	5	7	45
7	Jordan Peele – Get Out	5	6	9	7	10	5	8	7	7	6	40
8	Joe Wright – Darkest Hour	6		7	8	8	9	6	9	8	9	29
9	Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049	9	9			7	7	7	5	9	8	27
10	Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread		8	6	10	9	10			10	10	14
11	Dee Rees – Mudbound	10		10				10	10			4
12	Richard Linklater – Last Flag Flying				9							2
13	Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird		10									1

OTHER CONTENDERS
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
Alexander Payne – Downsizing
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon – The Current War
Angelina Jolie – First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers
Andy Serkis – Breathe
Clint Eastwood – The 15:17 to Paris
Dan Gilroy – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Darren Aronofsky – mother!
David Gordon Green – Stronger
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris – Battle of the Sexes
Kathryn Bigelow – Detroit
Michael Gracey – The Greatest Showman
Patty Jenkins – Wonder Woman
Reginald Hudlin – Marshall
Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World
Ruben Östlund – The Square
Scott Cooper – Hostiles
Sofia Coppola – The Beguiled
Stephen Frears – Victoria and Abdul
Todd Haynes – Wonderstruck
Woody Allen – Wonder Wheel
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Killing of a Sacred Deer

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.