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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

 

Best Picture

 BEST PICTUREErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Shape of Water, The (Fox Searchlight - 12/8)121211212394
2Dunkirk (Warner Bros - 7/21)242122133189
3Post, The (20th Century Fox - 12/22)333353321480
4Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics - 11/24)454439654561
5Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight - 11/10)61654556259
6Darkest Hour (Focus Features - 11/22)595676445950
7Get Out (Universal - 2/24)7610864867642
8Last Flag Flying (Amazon/Lionsgate - 11/3)877998778733
9Florida Project, The (A24 - 10/6)9108787999826
10Mudbound (Netflix - 11/17)10101010105
11Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Sony - 11/3)83
11Lady Bird (A24 - 11/10)83
13Phantom Thread (Focus Features - 12/25)92
13Big Sick, The (Amazon/Lionsgate - 6/23)10102
15Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros - 10/6)101
OTHER CONTENDERS
15:17 to Paris, The (Warner Bros. - Dec)
All the Money in the World (Sony - 12/8)
Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight - 9/22)
Beguiled, The (Focus Features - 6/23)
Breathe (Bleecker Street - 10/13)
Current War, The (The Weinstein Company - 11/24)
Detroit (Annapurna - 7/27 - limited, 8/4 - wide)
Downsizing (Paramount - 12/22)
First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers (Netflix - 9/15)
Greatest Showman, The (20th Century Fox - 12/25)
Hostiles (TBD)
Killing of a Sacred Deer, The (A24 - 10/27 - limited, 11/3 - wide)
Marshall (Open Road Films - 10/13)
Molly's Game (STX Entertainment - 11/22)
mother! (Paramount - 9/15)
Murder on the Orient Express (20th Century Fox - 11/10)
Novitiate (Sony Pictures Classics - 10/27)
Square, The (Magnolia - 10/27)
Stronger (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions - 9/22)
Suburbicon (Paramount 10/27)
Thank You For Your Service (Universal - 10/27)
Untouchable (The Weinstein Company)
Victoria and Abdul (Focus Features - 9/22)
Wind River (The Weinstein Company - 8/4)
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros - 6/2)
Wonder Wheel (Amazon - 12/1)
Wonder (Lionsgate - 11/17)
Wonderstruck (Amazon - 10/20)

Best Director

 BEST DIRECTORErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water111211211297
2Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk222122123192
3Steven Spielberg - The Post353343332576
4Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name444439444466
5Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri73855576350
6Jordan Peele - Get Out579784557647
7Sean Baker - The Florida Project895696885838
8Joe Wright - Darkest Hour678676781034
9Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying69789109723
10Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread106101010911
11Dee Rees - Mudbound91010105
11Dan Gilroy - Roman J. Israel, Esq.65
13Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird1084
OTHER CONTENDERS
Aaron Sorkin - Molly's Game
Alexander Payne - Downsizing
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon - The Current War
Angelina Jolie - First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers
Andy Serkis - Breathe
Clint Eastwood - The 15:17 to Paris
Darren Aronofsky - mother!
David Gordon Green - Stronger
Denis Villeneuve - Blade Runner 2049
George Clooney - Suburbicon
Kathryn Bigelow - Detroit
Michael Gracey - The Greatest Showman
Patty Jenkins - Wonder Woman
Reginald Hudlin - Marshall
Ridley Scott - All the Money in the World
Ruben Östlund - The Square
Scott Cooper - Hostiles
Sofia Coppola - The Beguiled
Stephen Frears - Victoria and Abdul
Todd Haynes - Wonderstruck
Woody Allen - Wonder Wheel
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Next: Actor and Actress

7 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.