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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions


Best Picture

Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
1Dunkirk (Warner Bros - 7/21)222121112195
2The Papers (20th Century Fox - 12/22)331272221285
3Shape of Water, The (Fox Searchlight - 12/8)113414453381
4Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics - 11/24)4453310334566
5Last Flag Flying (Amazon/Lionsgate - 11/3)768658645649
6Roman Israel, Esq (Sony - 11/3)77867566443
7Get Out (Universal - 2/24)55545989742
7Florida Project, The (A24 - 10/6)984783777842
9Darkest Hour (Focus Features - 11/22)6699898924
10Phantom Thread (Focus Features - 12/25)991097
11Wonderstruck (Amazon - 10/20)65
12Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight - 11/10)101010104
13Downsizing (Paramount - 12/22)83
13Mudbound (Netflix)1010103
15Detroit (Annapurna - 7/27 - limited, 8/4 - wide)101
15:17 to Paris, The (Warner Bros. - Dec)
Aftermath, The (Fox Searchlight)
All the Money in the World (Sony - 12/8)
Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight - 9/22)
Beguiled, The (Focus Features - 6/23)
Big Sick, The (Amazon/Lionsgate - 6/23)
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros - 10/6)
Breathe (Bleecker Street - 10/13)
Current War, The (The Weinstein Company - 11/24)
Disobedience (TBD)
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Sony Pictures Classics - 12/15)
Glass Castle, The (Lionsgate - 8/11)
Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight - 10/13)
Greatest Showman, The (20th Century Fox - 12/25)
Happy End (Sony Pictures Classics - 12/22)
Hostiles (TBD)
Killing of a Sacred Deer, The (A24 - 10/27 - limited, 11/3 - wide)
Kings (The Orchard)
Lady Bird (A24 - 11/10)
Lean on Pete (A24)
Leisure Seeker, The (Sony Pictures Classics - 1/19)
Lost City of Z (Amazon - 4/14)
Marshall (Open Road Films - 10/13)
Mary Magdalene (The Weinstein Company - 12/22)
Molly's Game (STX Entertainment - 11/22)
mother! (Paramount - 9/15)
Mountain Between Us, The (20th Century Fox - 10/20)
Murder on the Orient Express (20th Century Fox - 11/10)
Novitiate (Sony Pictures Classics - 10/27)
Silent Man, The (Sony Pictures Classics)
Snowman, The (Universal - 10/20)
Square, The (Magnolia - 10/27)
Stronger (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions - 9/22)
Suburbicon (Paramount 10/27)
Thank You For Your Service (Universal - 10/27)
Untouchable (The Weinstein Company)
Victoria and Abdul (Focus Features - 9/22)
Wind River (The Weinstein Company - 8/4)
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros - 6/2)
Wonder Wheel (Amazon)
Wonder (Lionsgate - 11/17)
You Were Never Really Here (Amazon)

Best Director

Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
1Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk112111112198
2Steven Spielberg - The Papers331242221288
3Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water225324353378
4Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name4444394104460
5Dan Gilroy - Roman Israel, Esq.888577545548
6Sean Baker - The Florida Project963793696844
7Jordan Peele - Get Out556857635
8Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying9106897721
8Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread76951010921
10Joe Wright - Darkest Hour678781020
11Kathryn Bigelow - Detroit869714
12Denis Villeneuve - Blade Runner 20491091087
12Dee Rees - Mudbound101067
14Todd Haynes - Wonderstruck65
15Alexander Payne - Downsizing74
16Alfonso Gómez-Rejón - The Current War92
17Darren Aronofsky - mother!101
Aaron Sorkin - Molly's Game
Andrew Haigh - Lean on Pete
Andy Serkis - Breathe
Clint Eastwood - The 15:17 to Paris
David Gordon Green - Stronger
Garth Davis - Mary Magdalene
George Clooney - Suburbicon
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Gracey - The Greatest Showman
Michael Haneke - Happy End
Reginald Hudlin - Marshall
Ridley Scott - All the Money in the World
Ruben Östlund - The Square
Sebastián Lelio - Disobedience
Sofia Coppola - The Beguiled
Stanley Tucci - Final Portrait
Stephen Frears - Victoria and Abdul
Woody Allen - Wonder Wheel
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Next: Actor and Actress


  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.