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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

 

Best Picture

 BEST PICTUREErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight - 11/10)113213121293
2Dunkirk (Warner Bros - 7/21)442121312189
3Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics - 11/24)324446446370
4The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight - 12/1)751734633566
5The Post (20th Century Fox - 12/22)275372274764
6Get Out (Universal - 2/24)567555555458
7Lady Bird (A24 - 11/3)639668767646
8Darkest Hour (Focus Features - 11/22)8869810888829
9The Florida Project (A24 - 10/6)99881099109920
10I, Tonya (Neon - 12/8)1097108
11The Big Sick (Amazon/Lionsgate - 6/23)10109105
12Phantom Thread (Focus Features - 12/25)101
12Mudbound (Netflix - 11/17)101
OTHER CONTENDERS
The 15:17 to Paris (Warner Bros. - Dec?)
All the Money in the World (Sony - 12/22)
Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight - 9/22)
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros - 10/6)
Detroit (Annapurna - 7/27)
Downsizing (Paramount - 12/22)
First They Killed My Father (Netflix - 9/15)
The Greatest Showman (20th Century Fox - 12/20)
Hostiles (Entertainment Studios)
Last Flag Flying (Amazon/Lionsgate - 11/3)
Molly's Game (STX Entertainment - 12/25)
mother! (Paramount - 9/15)
Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Sony - 11/3)
Stronger (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions - 9/22)
Victoria and Abdul (Focus Features - 9/22)
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros - 6/2)
Wonder Wheel (Amazon - 12/1)
Wonder (Lionsgate - 11/17)
Wonderstruck (Amazon - 10/20)

Best Director

 BEST DIRECTORErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk112111111199
2Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water621433422281
3Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name234226535375
4Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri445585343465
4Steven Spielberg - The Post383372264765
6Jordan Peele - Get Out569644657553
7Sean Baker - The Florida Project876797886836
7Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird7510888778636
9Joe Wright - Darkest Hour9891010999917
10Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread9710910101012
11Dee Rees - Mudbound10102
13Denis Villeneuve - Blade Runner 2049101
11Craig Gillespie - I, Tonya92
OTHER CONTENDERS
Aaron Sorkin - Molly's Game
Alexander Payne - Downsizing
Angelina Jolie - First They Killed My Father
Clint Eastwood - The 15:17 to Paris
Darren Aronofsky - mother!
Kathryn Bigelow - Detroit
Michael Gracey - The Greatest Showman
Patty Jenkins - Wonder Woman
Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying
Ridley Scott - All the Money in the World
Scott Cooper - Hostiles
Sofia Coppola - The Beguiled
Stephen Frears - Victoria and Abdul

Next: Actor and Actress

7 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.