2018 Oscar Predictions – BEST PICTURE (August): Dunkirk #1, Call Me By Your Name Rises; Detroit Falls
What an ever-changing early Oscar season it’s been. Wonderstruck, Detroit and The Papers have all landed in the top spot since predictions started back in March and we have yet another new Best Picture frontrunner to crown in Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk. One big difference is that Dunkirk is the only film this year to earn that spot on its actual merits, both critical acclaim and box office, as opposed to films unseen but that ‘look good on paper.’ After a very healthy two weeks at #1 at the box office and critics’ scores on both Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes in the 90s, Dunkirk stands tall among its competitors this month.
Faith in Luca Guadagnino’s gay romance Call Me By Your Name boosts the film all the way up to #3 this month after faltering a bit last month. The first trailer for the November release is due tomorrow. Dan Gilroy’s Roman Israel, Esq. with Denzel Washington enters the top 5 and Last Flag Flying, from Richard Linklater and starring Oscar nominees Bryan Cranston, Steve Carell and Laurence Fishburne, moves up a bit more this month, to #8.
The biggest move this month is for Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. After a #15 debut last month, the Fox Searchlight release rockets into the top 5 in just its second month on the chart. Paul Thomas Anderson’s fashion drama Phantom Thread (or whatever it’s called this month) re-enters the chart.
Big falls this month for former #1 Detroit. The film opened in limited release last weekend to modest box office but stellar reviews. That is, with the exception of some black critics and journalists who have pushed back on the film as ‘torture porn’ and are unsettled and unhappy with a white director handling the material. Darkest Hour, which still looks to be Gary Oldman’s Oscar vehicle, falls from its highest point last month (#3) down to #10 this month. Some are starting to feel it could be a play for Oldman and Oldman alone.
The Florida Project and Get Out hold. Falling off the list this month are Lean on Pete and The Greatest Showman. There were no new debuts for August.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for August from the Gold Rush Gang. Follow all predictions as they are updated live throughout the month right here.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Orange – re-entry
| BEST PICTURE | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunkirk (Warner Bros – 7/21) | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 91 |
| 2 | The Papers (20th Century Fox – 12/22) | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 84 |
| 3 | Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics – 11/24) | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 65 |
| 4 | Shape of Water, The (Fox Searchlight – 12/8) | 4 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 61 | |
| 5 | Roman Israel, Esq (Sony – 11/3) | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 49 |
| 6 | Detroit (Annapurna – 7/27 – limited, 8/4 – wide) | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 48 | |||
| 7 | Florida Project, The (A24 – 10/6) | 5 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Get Out (Universal – 2/24) | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 31 | ||
| 8 | Last Flag Flying (Amazon/Lionsgate – 11/3) | 7 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 31 | ||
| 10 | Darkest Hour (Focus Features – 11/24) | 7 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 25 | ||
| 11 | Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros – 10/6) | 5 | 10 | 7 | ||||||||
| 12 | Wonderstruck (Amazon – 10/20) | 6 | 5 | |||||||||
| 12 | Phantom Thread (Focus Features – 12/25) | 9 | 8 | 5 | ||||||||
| 14 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight – 11/10) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 3 | |||||||
| 15 | Mudbound (Netflix) | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| 16 | Suburbicon (Paramount 10/27) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| 15:17 to Paris, The (Warner Bros. – Dec) | ||||||||||||
| Aftermath, The (Fox Searchlight) | ||||||||||||
| All the Money in the World (Sony – Dec) | ||||||||||||
| Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight – 9/22) | ||||||||||||
| Beguiled, The (Focus Features – 6/23) | ||||||||||||
| Big Sick, The (Amazon/Lionsgate – 6/23) | ||||||||||||
| Breathe (Bleecker Street – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Current War, The (The Weinstein Company – 12/22) | ||||||||||||
| Disobedience (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Downsizing (Paramount – 12/22) | ||||||||||||
| Final Portrait (Sony Pictures Classics) | ||||||||||||
| Glass Castle, The (Lionsgate – 8/11) | ||||||||||||
| Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Greatest Showman, The (20th Century Fox – 12/25) | ||||||||||||
| Happy End (Sony Pictures Classics – 12/22) | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Killing of a Sacred Deer, The (A24 – 10/27 – limited, 11/3 – wide) | ||||||||||||
| Kings (The Orchard) | ||||||||||||
| Lady Bird (A24 – Fall 2017) | ||||||||||||
| Lean on Pete (A24) | ||||||||||||
| Leisure Seeker, The (Sony Pictures Classics – 1/19) | ||||||||||||
| Lost City of Z (Amazon – 4/14) | ||||||||||||
| Marshall (Open Road Films – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene (The Weinstein Company – 11/24) | ||||||||||||
| Molly’s Game (STX Entertainment – 11/22) | ||||||||||||
| mother! (Paramount – 9/15) | ||||||||||||
| Mountain Between Us, The (20th Century Fox – 10/20) | ||||||||||||
| Murder on the Orient Express (20th Century Fox – 11/10) | ||||||||||||
| Novitiate (Sony Pictures Classics – 10/27) | ||||||||||||
| Silent Man, The (Sony Pictures Classics) | ||||||||||||
| Snowman, The (Universal – 10/20) | ||||||||||||
| Square, The (Magnolia – 10/27) | ||||||||||||
| Stronger (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions – 9/22) | ||||||||||||
| Thank You For Your Service (Universal – 10/27) | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake (A24) | ||||||||||||
| Untouchable (The Weinstein Company) | ||||||||||||
| Victoria and Abdul (Focus Features – 9/22) | ||||||||||||
| Wind River (The Weinstein Company – 8/4) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder Woman (Warner Bros – 6/2) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder Wheel (Amazon) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder (Lionsgate – 11/17) | ||||||||||||
| You Were Never Really Here (Amazon) |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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