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Not much change in Supporting Actor this month, in fact it’s the same top 5 as last month with just a small amount of movement within that group.
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) maintains a clear favorite but Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete) moves up and starts to close the gap. Neither actor has ever been Oscar-nominated. Although Michael Shannon (The Current War) dips a bit and is the only element of his film that the Gold Rush Gang currently has much faith in, if there’s anyone who knows something about being the sole nominee from his film it’s Michael Shannon; he’s pulled it off twice now, with zero precursors both times no less.
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) breaks free from his tie with Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) and the pair end up at #4 and #5, respectively.
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #53 – CinemaCon Buzz; the Oscars in a post-Moonlight world
Idris Elba (Molly’s Game) holds onto his spot and then we have the first debut of the month – Laurence Fishburne in Last Flag Flying. Steve Carell was a predicted contender here last month but after a test screening in March revealed that Fishburne had the better, baitier supporting role, Carell was quickly cast aside and Fishburne, a Best Actor nominee in 1994 for What’s Love Got to Do With It, takes the #7 spot.
Elsewhere, Colin Farrell (Inner City) and Javier Bardem (mother!) hold their spots, Anthony Mackie (Untitled Detroit Riots Project) makes a move up and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) drops. Sterling K. Brown (Marshall) drops from #10 to #12 this month but I feel like it’s a temporary bump. It should be a good year for him as his television show This Is Us was the big breakout drama of the 2016-2017 season and he could find himself with Emmy love this September. Already an Emmy winner last year for American Crime Story and a two-time SAG nominee, Brown’s profile is high right now and this visibility could boost him all the way to an Oscar nomination.
One thing is clear, unlike the other acting categories at the moment, Supporting Actor is much more diverse and has the most potential to not revert to being an all-white category.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for April from the Gold Rush Gang.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 98 |
| 2 | Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 81 |
| 3 | Michael Shannon – The Current War | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 64 | |
| 4 | Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour | 7 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 60 |
| 5 | Jason Mitchell – Mudbound | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 53 | ||
| 6 | Idris Elba – Molly’s Game | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 36 | |
| 7 | Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 29 | |||||
| 8 | Colin Farrell – Inner City (possibly 2018) | 3 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 28 | ||||
| 9 | Javier Bardem – mother! | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 22 | ||||
| 10 | Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 4 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 18 | ||||||
| 11 | Anthony Mackie – Unititled Kathryn Bigelow Detriot Riots Project | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 17 | |||||
| 12 | Sterling K. Brown – Marshall | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 13 | ||||
| 13 | John Boyega – Unititled Kathryn Bigelow Detriot Riots Project | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12 | |||||||
| 14 | Joaquin Phoenix – Mary Magdalene | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5 | |||||||
| 14 | Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name | 7 | 10 | 5 | ||||||||
| 14 | Christoph Waltz – Downsizing | 6 | 5 | |||||||||
| 17 | Oscar Isaac – Suburbicon | 10 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||
| 18 | Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Alessandro Nivola – Disobedience | ||||||||||||
| Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul | ||||||||||||
| Chiwetel Ejiofor – Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| Daniel Brühl – Entebbe | ||||||||||||
| Domhnall Gleeson – mother! | ||||||||||||
| Ed Harris – mother! | ||||||||||||
| Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049 | ||||||||||||
| Jacob Tremblay – Wonder | ||||||||||||
| John Hurt – Darkest Hour | ||||||||||||
| Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game | ||||||||||||
| Kevin Hart – Untouchable | ||||||||||||
| Mark Rylance – Dunkirk | ||||||||||||
| Stanley Tucci – The Children Act | ||||||||||||
| Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying | ||||||||||||
| Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| Zac Efron – The Greatest Showman |
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