2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (June) – Ben Mendelsohn, Sterling K. Brown Rise; Big Debut for Willem Dafoe
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Things are looking bright for Ben Mendelsohn this month. The Emmy winner’s film, Darkest Hour, moved up in Best Picture and Best Director, still holds onto the #1 in Best Actor (Gary Oldman) and he reaches his highest placement this month, landing at #2. Worth noting, his point total is actually three points lower than last month so while his rankings from individual GRG members was a bit lower, in relation to how much other contenders fell, he rises.
A whopping seven performances are in the red this month, including a trio of last month’s top 5: Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete) drops one spot to #3, Michael Shannon (The Current War) drops one spot and Colin Farrell (Inner City) also drops one.
That makes the moves from the guys in green all the more important. Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown (Marshall) works his way into the top 10 after two months stuck at #12. With three other black actors starting to drop (Jason Mitchell, Mudbound; John Boyega, Detroit and Idris Elba, Molly’s Game) that just leaves Brown and Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying) to avoid a SupportingActorSoWhite scenario.
There are two debuts this month; one is huge, one a whimper. Cannes hit The Florida Project, from Sean Baker (Tangerine) got scooped up by A24 and with it come Willem Dafoe’s shot at his third Supporting Actor Oscar nomination. He starts off huge at #4 this month, including a #1 placement from GRG member Kenneth Polishchuk. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) is the other debut at #15. He’s also been on the low end of the Best Actor contenders but this is his first appearance in Supporting for the film.
Something I’ll be keeping an eye on is the newly announced cast of Steven Spielberg’s The Papers. While Hanks and Streep are the clear leads we could see a supporting player or two find their way in a la Spotlight. So watch out for Bradley Whitford or Bob Odenkirk or even Michael Stuhlbarg. But I don’t see him in for this over Call Me By Your Name so his presence in The Papers could really just solidify his place as the Supporting Actor frontrunner similar to Mahershala Ali having both Hidden Figures and Moonlight and winning everything for the latter.
Dropping off the list this month are the bottom four from last month: Oscar Isaac (Suburbicon), Ben Stiller (The Meyerowitz Stories), Anthony Mackie (Detroit) and Joaquin Phoenix (Mary Magdalene).
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for June from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 98 |
| 2 | Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 68 |
| 3 | Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 66 |
| 4 | Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 58 | ||
| 5 | Michael Shannon – The Current War | 6 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 55 |
| 6 | Colin Farrell – Inner City (possibly 2018) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 47 | ||||
| 7 | Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying | 7 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 44 | |
| 8 | Jason Mitchell – Mudbound | 4 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 41 | |
| 9 | Sterling K. Brown – Marshall | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 16 | |||||
| 10 | Javier Bardem – mother! | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 15 | |||||
| 11 | John Boyega – Detroit | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13 | |||
| 12 | Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 6 | 10 | 6 | 11 | |||||||
| 13 | Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name | 6 | 6 | 10 | ||||||||
| 14 | Idris Elba – Molly’s Game | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | |||||
| 15 | Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Alessandro Nivola – Disobedience | ||||||||||||
| Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul | ||||||||||||
| Anthony Mackie – Detroit | ||||||||||||
| Ben Stiller – The Meyerowitz Stories | ||||||||||||
| Bob Odenkirk – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Bradley Whitford – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Chiwetel Ejiofor – Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| Daniel Craig – Logan Lucky | ||||||||||||
| Domhnall Gleeson – mother! | ||||||||||||
| Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories | ||||||||||||
| Ed Harris – mother! | ||||||||||||
| Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound | ||||||||||||
| Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049 | ||||||||||||
| Jacob Tremblay – Wonder | ||||||||||||
| Joaquin Phoenix – Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game | ||||||||||||
| Kevin Hart – Untouchable | ||||||||||||
| Mark Rylance – Dunkirk | ||||||||||||
| Michael Stuhlbarg – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Oscar Isaac – Suburbicon | ||||||||||||
| Stanley Tucci – The Children Act | ||||||||||||
| Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying | ||||||||||||
| Will Poulter – Detroit | ||||||||||||
| Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| Zac Efron – The Greatest Showman |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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