2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July) – Can Anyone Stop Melissa Leo? Hunter, Spencer, Prince Might
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Things are looking very good for Melissa Leo to snag her second Best Supporting Actress Oscar with Sony Pictures Classics anointing her nun drama Novitiate with a heavenly October 27th release date. In all, the top 5 is the same as last month but Leo now posts a massive 32-point lead over her competition at #2, Michelle Pfeiffer in mother! That’s a bigger lead than any leader on our acting charts at the moment and it could spell gold for her come next March. And really, who doesn’t want another round of brilliant campaigning from Leo? Her ‘Consider’ ads for The Fighter, even when she was the clear frontrunner to win, were the most iconic since Diane Ladd’s grass roots spaghetti dinners that got her a supporting actress nomination for Wild at Heart in 1991.
Overall, it was a good month for a handful of supporting actress contenders who found themselves on an upward trajectory. None more so than young Brooklynn Prince. The pint-sized star of The Florida Project debuted last month at #15 and this month blasts all the way up to #6 and just two points outside of the top five. Incredible for such a young newcomer but our gang thinks The Florida Project is A24’s main push this season and will be a major Oscar player.
Julianne Moore moves up a bit with Suburbicon after a lack of faith in Wonderstruck moved those votes over and Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread) makes a mysterious move upwards as well. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) enters the top 3 for the first time and Hong Chau (Downsizing) finds herself climbing back up the charts after a disastrous test screening scared off most of the Gold Rush Gang.
Nicole Kidman takes up two spots again this month, for The Killing of a Sacred Deer and The Beguiled, but bleeds her own support a bit and finds herself down from last month for both films. Margot Robbie plummets from #7 last month to #19 this month with Goodbye Christopher Robin.
New entries this month include Oscar winners Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) and Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water), and, in a weird twist, Catherine Keener replaces Allison Williams in Get Out.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for July from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melissa Leo – Novitiate | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 99 |
| 2 | Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 67 | |
| 3 | Mary J. Blige – Mudbound | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 4 | Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 48 | |||
| 5 | Allison Janney – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 42 | ||
| 6 | Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 40 | ||||
| 7 | Julianne Moore – Suburbicon | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 34 | ||||
| 8 | Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread | 2 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 31 | |||||
| 9 | Rachel McAdams – Disobedience | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | |||
| 10 | Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer | 7 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 21 | |||||
| 11 | Holly Hunter – The Big Sick | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | ||||||
| 12 | Hong Chau – Downsizing | 6 | 3 | 10 | 14 | |||||||
| 13 | Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water | 5 | 5 | 10 | 13 | |||||||
| 14 | Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman | 9 | 9 | 4 | 11 | |||||||
| 14 | Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled | 3 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||||||
| 16 | Carmen Ejogo – Roman Israel, Esq. | 5 | 8 | 9 | ||||||||
| 17 | Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | ||||||
| 18 | Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete | 6 | 5 | |||||||||
| 19 | Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 19 | Catherine Keener – Get Out | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 21 | Katherine Waterston – The Current War | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 21 | Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Alison Brie – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Allison Williams – Get Out | ||||||||||||
| Brie Larson – The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| Carrie Coon – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Diana Rigg – Breathe | ||||||||||||
| Isabelle Huppert – Happy End | ||||||||||||
| Judi Dench – Murder on the Orient Express | ||||||||||||
| Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck | ||||||||||||
| Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool | ||||||||||||
| Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel | ||||||||||||
| Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread | ||||||||||||
| Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| Rachel Weisz – Disobedience | ||||||||||||
| Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake | ||||||||||||
| Rosamund Pike – Entebbe | ||||||||||||
| Sarah Paulson – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Tatiana Maslany – Stronger | ||||||||||||
| Cathy Moriarty – Patti Cake$ | ||||||||||||
| Vanessa Redgrave – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool | ||||||||||||
| Zendaya – The Greatest Showman |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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