2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July) – Can Anyone Stop Melissa Leo? Hunter, Spencer, Prince Might

Erik Anderson July 6, 2017

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Things are looking very good for Melissa Leo to snag her second Best Supporting Actress Oscar with Sony Pictures Classics anointing her nun drama Novitiate with a heavenly October 27th release date. In all, the top 5 is the same as last month but Leo now posts a massive 32-point lead over her competition at #2, Michelle Pfeiffer in mother! That’s a bigger lead than any leader on our acting charts at the moment and it could spell gold for her come next March. And really, who doesn’t want another round of brilliant campaigning from Leo? Her ‘Consider’ ads for The Fighter, even when she was the clear frontrunner to win, were the most iconic since Diane Ladd’s grass roots spaghetti dinners that got her a supporting actress nomination for Wild at Heart in 1991.

Overall, it was a good month for a handful of supporting actress contenders who found themselves on an upward trajectory. None more so than young Brooklynn Prince. The pint-sized star of The Florida Project debuted last month at #15 and this month blasts all the way up to #6 and just two points outside of the top five. Incredible for such a young newcomer but our gang thinks The Florida Project is A24’s main push this season and will be a major Oscar player.

Julianne Moore moves up a bit with Suburbicon after a lack of faith in Wonderstruck moved those votes over and Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread) makes a mysterious move upwards as well. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) enters the top 3 for the first time and Hong Chau (Downsizing) finds herself climbing back up the charts after a disastrous test screening scared off most of the Gold Rush Gang.

Nicole Kidman takes up two spots again this month, for The Killing of a Sacred Deer and The Beguiled, but bleeds her own support a bit and finds herself down from last month for both films. Margot Robbie plummets from #7 last month to #19 this month with Goodbye Christopher Robin.

New entries this month include Oscar winners Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) and Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water), and, in a weird twist, Catherine Keener replaces Allison Williams in Get Out.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for July from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

	SUPPORTING ACTRESS	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Melissa Leo – Novitiate	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	99
2	Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!	8		4	2	2	8	2	2	2	2	67
3	Mary J. Blige – Mudbound	4	7	7	6	7	6	6	6	5	6	50
4	Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour	2		2	8		3	8	3	3		48
5	Allison Janney – I, Tonya (possibly 2018)		4		7	9	7	3	4	8	4	42

6	Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project		6		4	3	4	4			5	40
7	Julianne Moore – Suburbicon	3			5		1	5		10	8	34
8	Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread		2	8		4		7			3	31
9	Rachel McAdams – Disobedience		8	5		6		9	6	9	9	25
10	Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer	7		3	10					7	7	21
11	Holly Hunter – The Big Sick		10				5		5	6		18
12	Hong Chau – Downsizing	6	3			10						14
13	Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water	5				5			10			13
14	Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman	9		9						4		11
14	Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled				3		9				10	11
16	Carmen Ejogo – Roman Israel, Esq.		5						8			9
17	Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck		9			8	10	10				7
18	Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete			6								5
19	Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin				9							2
19	Catherine Keener – Get Out								9			2
21	Katherine Waterston – The Current War			10								1
21	Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman	10										1

	OTHER CONTENDERS
	Alison Brie – The Papers
	Allison Williams – Get Out
	Brie Larson – The Glass Castle
	Carrie Coon – The Papers
	Diana Rigg – Breathe
	Isabelle Huppert – Happy End
	Judi Dench – Murder on the Orient Express
	Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck
	Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
	Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
	Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
	Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle
	Rachel Weisz – Disobedience
	Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman
	Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake
	Rosamund Pike – Entebbe
	Sarah Paulson – The Papers
	Tatiana Maslany – Stronger
	Cathy Moriarty – Patti Cake$
	Vanessa Redgrave – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
	Zendaya – The Greatest Showman

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.