2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (September)
Another month, another top placement for Melissa Leo (Novitiate), albeit this time, for the first time in a while, with a 99 instead of a 100.
Big moves and new names populate the Supporting Actress list after Leo with yet another beneficiary of the Telluride response to The Shape of Water and that is for previous Oscar winner (and a nominee last season), Octavia Spencer. She floats all the way up to #2 this month up, up from #4 in August. This bumps Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) down to #3 but Hunter actually increases in points, keeping her place in the top 5 solid. But it’s the arrival of the the debut of Lady Bird that takes Laurie Metcalf from her #13 debut last month all the way up to a tie with Hunter for the #3 that’s making waves. The Emmy and Tony winning actress received incredible reviews as Saoirse Ronan’s mother in the film and she seems primed for her first Oscar nomination. Downsizing‘s Hong Chau is the other big mover – going from #10 to #5. This is going to be a story to watch because the reviews for Downsizing out of Venice were mixed at best and the controversy surrounding Chau’s character (vs her performance) is going to be a topic of conversation this awards season.
Unfortunately, with rises like that it can only mean one thing; someone’s gotta fall. In this case a lot of someone’s but none bigger than Michelle Pfeiffer in mother! With so much mystery surrounding the film, the entirety of the Internet was clamoring for the first word out of Venice on the film and while it has some extremely good reviews there is a nagging feeling that it’s simply not going to be the Academy’s cup of tea. That being said, what that is anymore is much more open than it ever used to be. But, Pfeiffer falls from #3 down to #9 this month.
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) tumbles out of the top 5 to land at #7 this month. While it remains to be seen if Netflix will overcome its streaming/theatrical release issue or not, Blige’s film is hitting Toronto and NYFF this month and the first trailer for Mudbound just dropped this morning so things could change in her favor.
Falling off the list entirely this month are Julianne Moore (Suburbicon), Rachel McAdams (Disobedience), Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck), Nicole Kidman (The Killing of a Sacred Deer) and Michelle Williams (The Greatest Showman).
Two new entries arrive out of Telluride: Rosamund Pike in Hostiles (which still doesn’t have distribution) and Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes).
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for September from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melissa Leo – Novitiate | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 99 |
| 2 | Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 76 |
| 3 | Holly Hunter – The Big Sick | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 68 |
| 3 | Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 68 |
| 5 | Hong Chau – Downsizing | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 54 | ||
| 6 | Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread | 4 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 41 | |||
| 7 | Mary J. Blige – Mudbound | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 30 |
| 8 | Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 29 | ||||
| 9 | Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! | 3 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 21 | |||||
| 10 | Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel | 8 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 20 | |||||
| 10 | Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 20 | |
| 12 | Allison Janney – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||||||
| 13 | Carmen Ejogo – Roman J. Israel, Esq. | 8 | 8 | 6 | ||||||||
| 14 | Rosamund Pike – Hostiles | 7 | 4 | |||||||||
| 15 | Catherine Keener – Get Out | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 16 | Andrea Riseborough – Battle of the Sexes | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Alison Brie – The Post | ||||||||||||
| Allison Williams – Get Out | ||||||||||||
| Carrie Coon – The Post | ||||||||||||
| Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete | ||||||||||||
| Diana Rigg – Breathe | ||||||||||||
| Julianne Moore – Suburbicon | ||||||||||||
| Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck | ||||||||||||
| Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool | ||||||||||||
| Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Katherine Waterston – The Current War | ||||||||||||
| Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread | ||||||||||||
| Lily James – Darkest Hour | ||||||||||||
| Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin | ||||||||||||
| Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck | ||||||||||||
| Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer | ||||||||||||
| Rachel McAdams – Disobedience | ||||||||||||
| Rachel Weisz – Disobedience | ||||||||||||
| Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Sarah Paulson – The Post | ||||||||||||
| Tatiana Maslany – Stronger | ||||||||||||
| Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip | ||||||||||||
| Zendaya – The Greatest Showman |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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