2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (June)

Erik Anderson June 9, 2017

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Call Me By Your Name and The Papers have commanding leads in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay, respectively. Each outnumber their #2 rivals by exactly 20 points with both films in the top 5 for Best Picture (with The Papers at #1) an in Best Director Spielberg sits in the top spot while CMBYN‘s Luca Guadagnino is just outside the top 5 by a single point.

In Adapted Screenplay, Wonderstruck holds onto top 5 status despite falling everywhere else with Last Flag Flying and Mudbound filling out the top spots. It’s a big jump after that with the 6-10 slots nearly 30 points below including The Beguiled, Blade Runner 2049 and Victoria and Abdul.

You can follow the updated Screenplay predictions as they evolve throughout the month right here. These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for June in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang.

	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Call Me By Your Name	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	99
2	Lean on Pete	3	3	1	7	3	4	3	2	2	3	79
3	Last Flag Flying	5	2	4	4	2	6	2	3	3	2	77
4	Wonderstruck	2	6		2	4	2	4	6	4	4	65
5	Mudbound	4	7	3	3	8	3	5	4	5	5	63

6	The Death of Stalin	7	4	10	6	6	8	6		6	7	39
7	Molly’s Game	8	9	5	10		9	7	7	7	6	31
8	Disobedience	10	5	8		5		9	5	10	10	26
9	Victoria and Abdul	8		6	9		10	8	10	8	8	21
10	Beguiled, The	9	8		5	9	5	10				20
11	Blade Runner 2049	6		9	8		7		8			17
12	Leisure Seeker, The			7		10			9	9	9	11
13	Thoroughbred		10			7						5

	OTHER CONTENDERS
	Glass Castle, The
	How to Talk to Girls at Parties
	Mountain Between Us, The
	Snowman, The
	Stronger
	Thank You For Your Service
	Untouchable
	Wonder
	You Were Never Really Here

Original Screenplay, after the #1 spot, is shaping up to be quite competitive this year. Detroit, Darkest Hour and Get Out stand within a point of each other and then Inner City and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri tie for 5th. The Florida Project, from Sean Baker, makes a strong showing at #7 after hitting the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress charts this month. The Killing of a Sacred Deer, which tied for the Screenplay win at the Cannes Film Festival last month, earns a place at #8. Interestingly, the film it tied with, You Were Never Really Here (which also won Joaquin Phoenix Best Actor) didn’t gain any traction for that win in our Adapted Screenplay predictions.

	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	The Papers	1	2	2	2	3	1	2	1	1	3	92
2	Detroit	2	7	1	5	8	3	4	4	2	2	72
3	Darkest Hour	5	5	3	3	4	6	3	2	3	5	71
3	Get Out	3	1	6	1	2	4	5	7	6	4	71
5	Inner City (possibly 2018)		4			1		1	3	4	1	52
5	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	7	3	5	6	7	8	6	5	5	6	52

7	The Florida Project		6		4	5	2	7		7	7	39
8	Killing of a Sacred Deer, The	4	8	8	7		7	10		9	8	27
9	Suburbicon	6	10	4	8		5	9		10		25
10	Current War, The			10	9	6		8	6			16
11	Downsizing	9		9			9			8		9
12	mother!	10		7					9			7
12	Phantom Thread		9						8		9	7
14	Wonder Wheel				10	10	10		10			4
15	Brad’s Status					9					10	3
15	Greatest Showman, The	8										3

	OTHER CONTENDERS
	Baby Driver
	Breathe
	Dunkirk
	Goodbye Christopher Robin
	Happy End
	Hostiles
	I, Tonya (possibly 2018)
	Kings
	Marshall
	Mary Magdalene
	Meyerowitz Stories, The
	Novitiate
	Shape of Water, The
	Under the Silver Lake
	Wind River

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.