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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay

 ADAPTED SCREENPLAYErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Call Me By Your Name1111111111100
2Molly's Game222332242286
3Mudbound443223333479
4The Disaster Artist334444424375
5All the Money in the World985695575744
6Wonder Woman557578888841
7Star Wars: The Last Jedi7967566691039
8Logan678889107531
9Wonder109975620
10The Lost City of Z867617
11Blade Runner 204910109101098
12Stronger697
13Last Flag Flying10102
14The Beguiled101
OTHER CONTENDERS
Victoria and Abdul
Wonderstruck

Best Original Screenplay

 ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Get Out112131121394
2Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri 231213212192
3Lady Bird323322333284
4The Shape of Water444455444468
5The Post777644555753
6The Big Sick565777767647
7I, Tonya 656588698544
8Phantom Thread888866876837
9Darkest Hour1010998109810918
10The Florida Project99101099101091015
OTHER CONTENDERS
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Wind River

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8 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.