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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay

 ADAPTED SCREENPLAYErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Call Me By Your Name111111111299
2Last Flag Flying223222232189
3Mudbound332474443472
4The Death of Stalin444667356560
5Wonderstruck6910563574649
6Darkest Hour34525344
7Lean on Pete57736667943
8Victoria and Abdul768109791022
9The Disaster Artist105998718
10Molly's Game85108816
11Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool85911
12Hostiles78810
13Disobedience9101010106
13Blade Runner 204998106
15Wonder Woman65
16Stronger83
1715:17 to Paris, The92
OTHER CONTENDERS
Beguiled, The
Glass Castle, The
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
The Leisure Seeker
Mountain Between Us, The
Snowman, The
Thank You For Your Service
Thoroughbred
Wonder
You Were Never Really Here

Best Original Screenplay

 ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1The Papers231231211292
2Get Out113122323389
3Shape of Water, The324516444473
4Roman Israel, Esq. 645444182171
5The Florida Project492383595656
6Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 759675656549
7The Big Sick5667107977739
8Phantom Thread7885910109825
9Wonder Wheel8810996918
10Detroit73815
11Lady Bird10106108
12Downsizing9103
12Darkest Hour1075
13Suburbicon83
15Killing of a Sacred Deer, The101
OTHER CONTENDERS
All the Money in the World
Baby Driver
Brad's Status
Breathe
Current War, The
Dunkirk
Greatest Showman, The
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Happy End
Hostiles
I, Tonya (possibly 2018)
Kings
Marshall
Mary Magdalene
Meyerowitz Stories, The
mother!
Novitiate
Under the Silver Lake
Wind River

Previous: Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Next: Cinematography, Film Editing and Original Score

7 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.