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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay

 ADAPTED SCREENPLAYErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Call Me By Your Name1111111111100
2Mudbound232223232287
3Molly's Game554332323476
4The Disaster Artist425454444371
5Last Flag Flying343545595562
6Stronger1097696676638
7Blade Runner 20496788957731
8Wonderstruck6997868827
9Victoria and Abdul768109710922
10Wonder Woman888911
11The Death of Stalin688
12The Beguiled910101010107
13Logan1075
14Star Wars: The Last Jedi74
15All the Money in the World10102
OTHER CONTENDERS
The 15:17 to Paris
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service
Wonder

Best Original Screenplay

 ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 1111111111100
2Get Out224223433283
3The Post453332222381
4The Shape of Water362444344472
5Lady Bird536556565559
6The Big Sick648685656650
7Darkest Hour797999778830
7The Florida Project810571081087730
9I, Tonya 10710877810923
10Phantom Thread89106109910919
11Wind River92
12Wonder Wheel101
OTHER CONTENDERS
All the Money in the World
Baby Driver
Battle of the Sexes
Brad's Status
Breathe
Detroit
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Hostiles
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Marshall
The Meyerowitz Stories
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Suburbicon

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Next: Cinematography, Film Editing and Original Score

7 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.