2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (November)
Adapted Screenplay is a weird category this year. Once you get past our predicted top 5 it’s like pulling teeth to find likely contenders. Even the top 5 itself doesn’t ‘look’ right other than #1 Call Me By Your Name. Not only is it not vulnerable, it’s such a clear and far out frontrunner that this category barely needs other players in it. So much so that our list includes two comic book adaptations in it (Wonder Woman and Logan), and the new Star Wars; not exactly the Academy’s cup of screenplay tea. Just looking at our Other Contenders list shows how bleak this category is. The Death of Stalin falls hard since it was announced IFC would give it an April 2018 release. But Jason is holding onto it in hopes of an announcement of a 2017 qualifying release.
Original Screenplay, on the other hand, is overflowing with deserving and likely candidates. So much so that there will be brutal snubs here come Oscar nomination morning. That said, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is getting stronger by the day and is now with a perfect score from the Gold Rush Gang. There is some scuttlebutt that The Post could go adapted here but there is no evidence that Liz Hannah’s original script nor Josh Singer’s revisions have used any individual document, article, film, book or new story that would qualify it as adapted in the eyes of the Academy. Last season, they moved Moonlight (the eventual Oscar winner in this category) and Loving here from Original but both had clear reasons why. So unless it is revealed that The Post is adapted from existing materials it stays in Original. Same goes for Darkest Hour. While some insist that it will get moved over to Adapted, it’s been made clear that the screenplay was written and the film shot before the book adaptation of the screenplay was written. Elsewhere, Get Out makes a move and hits its highest point this year, #2. The Big Sick, Darkest Hour and I, Tonya all make small moves up in the 6-10 tier and The Florida Project falls.
These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for November in Adapted Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Mudbound | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 89 |
| 3 | Molly’s Game | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 73 |
| 4 | The Disaster Artist | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 72 |
| 5 | Last Flag Flying | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 63 |
| 6 | Stronger | 7 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Blade Runner 2049 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 35 | |
| 8 | Victoria and Abdul | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 26 | |
| 9 | Wonderstruck | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22 | |||
| 10 | Wonder Woman | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | |||||||
| 11 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | 7 | 7 | 8 | ||||||||
| 12 | The Beguiled | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | |||
| 13 | The Death of Stalin | 6 | 5 | |||||||||
| 13 | Logan | 10 | 7 | 5 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
The 15:17 to Paris
All the Money in the World
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service
Wonder
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Get Out | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 85 |
| 3 | The Post | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 77 |
| 4 | The Shape of Water | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 70 |
| 5 | Lady Bird | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 63 |
| 6 | The Big Sick | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 52 |
| 7 | Darkest Hour | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 31 |
| 8 | I, Tonya | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 27 |
| 9 | The Florida Project | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23 |
| 10 | Phantom Thread | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 21 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
All the Money in the World
Baby Driver
Battle of the Sexes
Brad’s Status
Breathe
Detroit
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Hostiles
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
The Meyerowitz Stories
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Wind River
Wonder Wheel
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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