2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (November)

Erik Anderson November 1, 2017

Adapted Screenplay is a weird category this year. Once you get past our predicted top 5 it’s like pulling teeth to find likely contenders. Even the top 5 itself doesn’t ‘look’ right other than #1 Call Me By Your Name. Not only is it not vulnerable, it’s such a clear and far out frontrunner that this category barely needs other players in it. So much so that our list includes two comic book adaptations in it (Wonder Woman and Logan), and the new Star Wars; not exactly the Academy’s cup of screenplay tea. Just looking at our Other Contenders list shows how bleak this category is. The Death of Stalin falls hard since it was announced IFC would give it an April 2018 release. But Jason is holding onto it in hopes of an announcement of a 2017 qualifying release.

Original Screenplay, on the other hand, is overflowing with deserving and likely candidates. So much so that there will be brutal snubs here come Oscar nomination morning. That said, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is getting stronger by the day and is now with a perfect score from the Gold Rush Gang. There is some scuttlebutt that The Post could go adapted here but there is no evidence that Liz Hannah’s original script nor Josh Singer’s revisions have used any individual document, article, film, book or new story that would qualify it as adapted in the eyes of the Academy. Last season, they moved Moonlight (the eventual Oscar winner in this category) and Loving here from Original but both had clear reasons why. So unless it is revealed that The Post is adapted from existing materials it stays in Original. Same goes for Darkest Hour. While some insist that it will get moved over to Adapted, it’s been made clear that the screenplay was written and the film shot before the book adaptation of the screenplay was written. Elsewhere, Get Out makes a move and hits its highest point this year, #2. The Big Sick, Darkest Hour and I, Tonya all make small moves up in the 6-10 tier and The Florida Project falls.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for November in Adapted Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Call Me By Your Name	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	100
2	Mudbound	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	89
3	Molly’s Game	5	5	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	4	73
4	The Disaster Artist	4	2	5	4	5	4	3	4	4	3	72
5	Last Flag Flying	3	4	3	5	4	5	5	8	5	5	63

6	Stronger	7	9	7	6	9	6	8	7	6	9	36
7	Blade Runner 2049	8	6		7	8	8	9	5	7	6	35
8	Victoria and Abdul	6		6	8	10	9	6	9	9	10	26
9	Wonderstruck	9		9	9		7	7	6	8		22
10	Wonder Woman		8	8							8	9
11	Star Wars: The Last Jedi		7								7	8
12	The Beguiled	10		10	10		10	10	10	10		7
13	The Death of Stalin					6						5
13	Logan		10			7						5

OTHER CONTENDERS
The 15:17 to Paris
All the Money in the World
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service
Wonder

	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	100
2	Get Out	2	2	4	2	2	2	4	2	3	2	85
3	The Post	4	5	3	3	4	3	2	4	2	3	77
4	The Shape of Water	3	6	2	4	5	4	4	3	4	5	70
5	Lady Bird	5	3	6	5	3	6	5	5	5	4	63

6	The Big Sick	6	4	5	6	8	5	6	6	6	6	52
7	Darkest Hour	7	9	7	7	9	9	7	7	8	9	31
8	I, Tonya	10	7	10	9	6	7	8	9	9	8	27
9	The Florida Project	8	10	8	8	10	8	10	8	7	10	23
10	Phantom Thread	9	8	9	10	7	10	9	10	10	7	21

OTHER CONTENDERS
All the Money in the World
Baby Driver
Battle of the Sexes
Brad’s Status
Breathe
Detroit
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Hostiles
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
The Meyerowitz Stories
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Wind River
Wonder Wheel

Author
Recent Posts

Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.