2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (October) – Call Me By Your Name, Three Billboards Lead

Erik Anderson October 5, 2017

The lead for Call Me By Your Name in Adapted Screenplay actually managed to get stronger this month, now securing a perfect score of 100. Incredibly, it’s the only film that doesn’t make some move this month Mudbound reaches a high point to land at #2 as Last Flag Flying dips to #3.

Two films make major moves into the top five: Molly’s Game, up from #13 and Stronger, up from a #18 debut last month. The Disaster Artist moves up from #7.

Darkest Hour is removed from this category after confirmation that it will be submitted in Original for all awards its eligible for. But the Academy has made its own decision here before, just last season in fact, with the eventual winner Moonlight. But, since the screenplay was written and the film was shot before the book was written it would be a hard case to prove that it’s adapted.

The Death of Stalin falls here as it seems IFC will be holding the film until 2018 (no word on a 2017 qualifying release at this time). Two comic book films make a surprise showing here: Logan and Wonder Woman. While the screenplays for both are good (and certainly both films’ reviews) it speaks to how bleak this category is in search of contenders.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for October in Adapted Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Call Me By Your Name	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	100
2	Mudbound	2	3	2	3	4	2	3	3	3	2	83
3	Last Flag Flying	3	4	3	2	2	4	2	9	2	5	74
4	Molly’s Game	5	5	4	5	3	3	6	2	4	4	69
5	Disaster Artist, The	4	2	5	6	7	5	5	4	5	3	64

6	Stronger	6	6	7	8	9	6		6	6	6	39
6	Blade Runner 2049	7	7	6	7	8	8	9	5	7	7	39
8	Wonderstruck	8		9	9	10	7	7	8	8	8	25
9	Death of Stalin, The				4	5		4	7			24
10	Victoria and Abdul	9		8	10		9	8	10			12
11	All the Money in the World	10	8							9	10	7
12	Logan		10			6						6
13	Wonder Woman		9								9	4
14	Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool							8				3
15	Beguiled, The						10		10			2
16	The 15:17 to Paris							10				1

OTHER CONTENDERS
Disobedience
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service
Wonder

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For the first time this season we have a new #1 in Original Screenplay. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri tops The Post on the strength of the film’s festival plays and major wins.

Darkest Hour shows up in fuller force here this month but out of the top 5. Lady Bird enjoys its first month there.

Roman J. Israel, Esq. tumbles not just out of the top 5 from last month but all the way down into the Other Contenders list. Downsizing falls to there as well.

Debuts this month include Battle of the Sexes, I, Tonya and Wind River as well as the return of Dunkirk.

Unlike Adapted Screenplay, Original is looking like the most competitive in many years. There will be significant snubs no matter who makes it in to Oscar’s final five.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for October in Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Orange – re-entry

	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	2	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	96
2	The Post	4	3	1	2	3	1	4	2	2	3	85
3	Get Out	3	2	4	3	2	3	2	4	3	2	82
4	The Shape of Water	1	4	2	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	77
5	Lady Bird	7	5	6	7	5	6	5	8	5	5	51

6	The Florida Project	6	8	5	5	7	7	6	7	6	7	46
7	The Big Sick	8	6	8	6	6	5	8	6	7	6	44
8	Darkest Hour	5	7	7	8	9	8	7	5	8	8	38
9	Phantom Thread		9	9	9	8	9	10	9	10	9	17
10	Wonder Wheel			10				9	10	9	10	7
11	I, Tonya		10		10	10						3
12	Wind River	9										2
13	Battle of the Sexes	10										1
13	Dunkirk						10					1

OTHER CONTENDERS
Baby Driver
Brad’s Status
Breathe
The Current War
Detroit
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
Goodbye Christopher Robin
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Marshall
The Meyerowitz Stories
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Suburbicon

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.