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Screenplay predictions can be a bit tricky this early on as we saw with this year’s Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner Moonlight, which won multiple Original Screenplay citations from critics as well as the Writers Guild of America but was deemed Adapted by the Academy deep into the Oscar season.
Both screenplay categories are top-heavy with Best Picture material at the moment, with Original Screenplay carrying the burden as a very packed category this season. It’s going to be quite a fight as we move through the season. The top two; Downsizing and Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit Riots Project are at just a one point separation. After that, Darkest Hour looks safe and then it’s another one-point race between Paul Thomas Anderson’s Fashion Project with Daniel Day-Lewis and Martin McDonaugh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Jordan Peele’s blockbuster horror/thriller Get Out lands at #6. Adapted is a bit thinner, with Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name and Lean on Pete clear leaders. The next three spots are held by Last Flag Flying, Mudbound and Molly’s Game in a very close race.
Last year the Gold Rush Gang didn’t start our screenplay predictions until May and had Moonlight (in Original), Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land in our predictions with The Lobster and Hidden Figures on our Other Contenders list. These started taking shape near the end of summer and by the time Moonlight was moved to Adapted that category was locked in.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang:
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wonderstruck | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 93 |
| 2 | Call Me By Your Name | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 84 |
| 3 | Lean on Pete | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 77 |
| 4 | Last Flag Flying | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 54 |
| 5 | Mudbound | 3 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 53 |
| 6 | Molly’s Game | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 51 |
| 7 | The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 41 | ||||
| 8 | Annihilation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 34 | |||
| 9 | Disobedience | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 22 | |
| 10 | Victoria and Abdul | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 15 | ||
| 11 | The Leisure Seeker | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 12 | |||||
| 12 | Blade Runner 2049 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | |||||||
| 13 | How to Talk to Girls at Parties | 7 | 4 | |||||||||
| 14 | The Glass Castle | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| The Beguiled | ||||||||||||
| The Mountain Between Us | ||||||||||||
| The Snowman | ||||||||||||
| You Were Never Really Here |
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Downsizing | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 95 |
| 2 | Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Project | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 94 |
| 3 | Darkest Hour | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 73 |
| 4 | Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project | 6 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 57 |
| 5 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56 |
| 6 | Get Out | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Happy End | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 32 | ||||
| 8 | The Current War | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 31 | ||
| 9 | Inner City (possibly 2018) | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 26 | ||||||
| 10 | Dunkirk | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 18 | ||
| 11 | mother! | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 13 | |||||
| 12 | Brad’s Status | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 | |||||||
| 13 | The Killing of a Sacred Deer | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 13 | Wind River | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 13 | Baby Driver | 10 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||
| 16 | Tully | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 16 | Wonder Wheel | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Breathe | ||||||||||||
| The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles | ||||||||||||
| I, Tonya (likely 2018) | ||||||||||||
| Kings | ||||||||||||
| Marshall | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| The Shape of Water | ||||||||||||
| Suburbicon | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake | ||||||||||||
| Untitled A. A. Milne biopic |
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