Wed. Aug 5th, 2020

2019 BAFTA Preview and Winner Predictions: Will it be ‘Roma’ or ‘The Favourite’?

The seating arrangements for this weekend’s BAFTAs (photo: John Phillips/Getty Images)

Will BAFTA co-sign with the DGA or the PGA? With the Golden Globes or the Critics’ Choice? Little from column A, little from column B, perhaps?

Their Best Film lineup, only 5 (unlike the Academy’s 8 this year), are all Oscar-nominated. BAFTA’s Best Director lineup matches Oscars’ 4/5, with Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) here and Adam McKay (Vice) at the Oscars. Like the Academy, that means only BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite and Roma are nominated for both and the safe bet is to stick with one of those three. I think BAFTA will go in for Roma and Alfonso Cuaron but The Favourite, the nomination leader here with 12, is knocking on that door. Remember, just last year Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (a British production) beat eventual Best Picture Oscar winner The Shape of Water. Where The Favourite will struggle is with history. Atonement was the last BAFTA Best Film winner to not have a corresponding DGA nomination, in 2007. The Pianist is the last BAFTA Best Film winner without a corresponding Best Director nomination at the Golden Globes, in 2002.

Then there’s this: the last 7 consecutive Best Film winners at the Golden Globes (Drama or Comedy/Musical) went on to win BAFTA’s Best Film prize. Does that spell a win for Green Book?

I think overall BAFTA will go with the current acting Oscar favorites and frontrunners: Glenn Close (The Wife), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) and Mahershala Ali (Green Book). There’s probably some wiggle room in Best Actress with Olivia Colman (The Favourite) as a true possibility and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) in Supporting Actor. Supporting Actress is a bit trickier. With Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe winner and Oscar nominee Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) not nominated that leaves Oscar nominees Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone (The Favourite), Amy Adams (Vice) and non-Oscar nominees Claire Foy (First Man) and Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots). While prevailing belief is that Rachel Weisz will take this (and it’s a safe prediction) we just saw the Screen Actors Guild dip outside the Oscar pool and give their win to Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) with the same three Oscar nominees (which were announced three days before the SAG voting deadline) right there. Could BAFTA upend this race once again with another non-Oscar nominated winner? I have to think that if they go for Foy or Robbie that King all but sews up an Oscar win. I’m going to lean Weisz though, it just makes more sense.

One category that seemed easy but then got turned upside down this week is Outstanding British Film. I would have easily pegged The Favourite to take this in a cake walk but when BAFTA suddenly announced they were removing Bohemian Rhapsody director Bryan Singer’s name from the nomination list – after voting had closed – it gave me pause. The timing felt anxious. Like BAFTA knew Bohemian Rhapsody won there and they didn’t want to have to have Singer’s name called out live on stage, much less him be a winner. It could all just be a wild theory and a preventative measure and it will mean that in announcing the nominees on the show, Singer’s name will not be one of them. That may have been a large part of the decision right there. Recently, GLAAD, the Gay and Lesbian Association Against Defamation, removed Bohemian Rhapsody from the list of possible nominees from its GLAAD Media Awards as a preventative measure.

Nominees confirmed to date include (in alphabetical order): Adam Driver, Adam McKay, Alfonso Cuarón, Amy Adams, Barry Jenkins, Barry Keoghan, Brad Bird, Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale, Claire Foy, Cynthia Erivo, Glenn Close, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, Letitia Wright, Lynne Ramsay, Mahershala Ali, Margot Robbie, Melissa McCarthy, Nadine Labaki, Octavia Spencer, Olivia Colman, Paweł Pawlikowski, Peter Jackson, Rachel Weisz, Rami Malek, Richard E. Grant, Spike Lee, Steve Coogan, Timothée Chalamet, Viggo Mortensen, Viola Davis, Wes Anderson, and Yorgos Lanthimos.

Presenters and other attendees confirmed to date include (in alphabetical order): Andy Serkis, Bill Nighy, Cate Blanchett, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Cynthia Erivo, Danai Gurira, Eddie Marsan, Eleanor Tomlinson, Elizabeth Debicki, Ellen Page, Gary Oldman, Henry Golding, Jamie Bell, Joseph Fiennes, Lily Collins, Lucy Boynton, Luke Evans, Margot Robbie, Marina de Tavira, Mary J Blige, Melissa McCarthy, Michelle Rodriguez, Michelle Yeoh, Olga Kurylenko, Rachel Brosnahan, Regina King, Richard Madden, Riz Ahmed, Salma Hayek, Sophie Okonedo, Taron Egerton, Viola Davis, Will Poulter and Yalitza Aparicio.

As previously announced, Elizabeth Karlsen and Stephen Woolley will receive the Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema Award and Thelma Schoonmaker will be honoured with the BAFTA Fellowship.

Jess Gillam will perform alongside this year’s obituaries. The 20-year-old saxophonist won Young Musician of the Year in 2016 and has since been recognised with a  Classic Brit Award in the Sound of Classical Poll 2018, which recognises the best emerging artists in classical music.

The BAFTAs will be held at London’s iconic Royal Albert Hall and air live on the BBC Sunday, February 10th with the red carpet broadcast live on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube from 17.00 to 18.30 GMT. The show, hosted once again by Joanna Lumley, will air live on BBC One and BBC One HD from 21.00 to 23.00 GMT. You can also catch it online or on catch-up on BBC iPlayer. I will be tweeting out the winners live as they are announced.

Here are my 2019 BAFTA winner predictions with alternates.

Best Film
Prediction: Roma
Alternate: The Favourite

Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Alternate: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Leading Actor
Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Christian Bale, Vice

Leading Actress
Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
Alternate: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Supporting Actor
Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Alternate: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supporting Actress
Prediction: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate: Amy Adams, Vice

Original Screenplay
Prediction: The Favourite
Alternate: Green Book

Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk

Outstanding British Film
Prediction: The Favourite
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody

Film Not in the English Language
Prediction: Roma
Alternate: Cold War

Animated Film
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Incredibles 2

Prediction: They Shall Not Grow Old
Alternate: Three Identical Strangers

Original Music
Prediction: A Star Is Born
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk

Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: The Favourite

Prediction: Roma
Alternate: Cold War

Production Design
Prediction:: The Favourite
Alternate: Roma

Costume Design
Prediction: The Favourite
Alternate: Mary Poppins Returns

Make-Up & Hair
Prediction: Vice
Alternate: The Favourite

Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: First Man

Special Visual Effects
Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War
Alternate: First Man

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Prediction: Beast Michael Pearce (Writer/Director), Lauren Dark (Producer)
Alternate: Ray & Liz Richard Billingham (Writer/Director), Jacqui Davies (Producer)

EE Rising Star Award
Prediction: Letitia Wright
Alternate: Cynthia Erivo

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