2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (November)

Adapted Screenplay sees some movement in the top 10 but If Beale Street Could Talk stays put at #1 for the second month in a row as the list’s biggest Best Picture player. 

Moving up is Can You Ever Forgive Me? to the #2 spot. It’s hard to imagine the writers branch not going deep on a film about a writer (although there are quite a few this year). 

Black Panther makes the biggest jump, into the top 5 for the first time. With Logan breaking the comic book glass ceiling in this category last year it’s hard not to see Black Panther, which is poised to be a much bigger Oscar contender, find a place here. It’s a pretty competitive category but if the Academy goes for the film the way I (and many pundits) think it will then it’s in. 

Crazy Rich Asians makes a top 10 move this month while former #1 BlacKkKlansman drops one more to #3. Boy Erased and The Old Man & the Gun also fall. 

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for November 20, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/return

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
3. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
4. Black Panther (Disney)
5. Widows (20th Century Fox)

6. A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
7. Boy Erased (Focus Features)
8. Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
9. First Man (Universal)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)

NEXT UP

The Incredibles 2 (Disney)
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)
The Mule (Warner Bros)
The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)
Wildlife (IFC Films)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
The Wife (Sony Classics)

After a locked month in October, November sees Original Screenplay with quite a bit of top 10 jostling. While ROMA sticks its pole position, The Favourite and Green Book both eke up, jumping over Vice. The Dick Cheney biopic finally screened for critics last weekend and to largely enthusiastic response. While the performances garnered the best response, some of the screenplay elements that try to replicate the structure of The Big Short seemed to well, fall short, a bit. 

Eighth Grade and Sorry to Bother You both scored at the Spirit Award nominations last Friday and will likely compete for First Screenplay honors throughout the season. Each could find a place in the top 5 if any from my current list falters even a little bit. 

Destroyer and A Quiet Place fall a bit but still are safe top 10s right now. 

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for November 20, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/return

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Green Book (Universal)
4. Vice (Annapurna)
5. First Reformed (A24)

6. Eighth Grade (A24)
7. Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna)
8. Destroyer (Annapurna)
9. Hereditary (A24)
10. A Quiet Place (Paramount)

NEXT UP

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix)
Capharnaüm (Sony Classics)
Cold War (Amazon)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Tully (Focus Features)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Blindspotting (Lionsgate)
The Mule (Warner Bros)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS  (November)