2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (September)

I’m still holding on to Spike Lee pulling off a competitive Oscar win with BlacKkKlansman but Barry Jenkins is a real threat to win this category again with If Beale Street Could Talk, which was the first runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at Toronto last weekend. 

Beautiful Boy, A Star Is Born and Black Panther all rise while Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Widows, First Man, and The Old Man & the Gun all take small steps down. 

The Front Runner falls out of the top 10 and doesn’t seem likely to return. 

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for September 18, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Boy Erased (Focus Features)
5. Beautiful Boy (Amazon)

6. Widows (20th Century Fox)
7. A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
8. Black Panther (Disney)
9. First Man (Universal)
10. The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)

NEXT UP

Bird Box (Netflix)
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)
The Front Runner (Sony Pictures)
The Incredibles 2 (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Disobedience (Bleecker Street)
Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot (Amazon)
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)
Mary Poppins Returns (Walt Disney)
The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics)
Wildlife (IFC Films)

ROMA rises to the top spot this month on the strength of its rapturous reviews from Venice, Telluride and Toronto and for how deeply personal of a story this is from Alfonso Cuarón.

Green Book, after winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award, makes a big leap into the top 5 – watch for that across multiple categories.

First Reformed hits the top 5 as well, knocking down Destroyer and Peterloo in the process and Capharnaüm moves up as a quiet spoiler. Cold War is the sole new entry.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for September 18, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Vice (Annapurna)
4. Green Book (Universal)
5. First Reformed (A24)

6. A Quiet Place (Paramount)
7. Destroyer (Annapurna)
8. Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna)
9. Hereditary (A24)
10. Peterloo (Amazon)

NEXT UP

Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix)
Capharnaüm (Sony Pictures Classics)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Tully (Focus Features)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Blindspotting (Lionsgate)
Bohemian Rhapsody (20th Century Fox)
Cold War (Amazon)
Eighth Grade (A24)
Hearts Beat Loud (Stage 6 Films)
High Life (A24)
Mid90s (A24)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (September)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (September)