2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (June) – Ethan Hawke joins the race

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Very little change on the Best Actor chart this month and in fact, no movement within the top 10 at all. All positions seem secure and haven’t hit any dramatic bumps in the positive or negative.

The Next Up section that sees tone new entry and one worth a deeper look.

Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, for a performance that’s being called his best. Although it feels more like one that will hit with the Gothams and Independent Spirits, Hawke is already a four-time Oscar nominee (two for writing, two for acting) so his time may be coming with this career-defining role.

Viggo Mortensen is a two-time Best Actor Oscar nominee, including just two years ago for Captain Fantastic. In Green Book, he plays a working-class Italian-American bouncer who becomes the driver of an African-American classical pianist (played by Oscar-winner Mashershala Ali) on a tour of venues through the 1960s American South. It sounds like a great role and it’s a film I’ve been keeping my eye on. It has an early January release in the UK but no US distribution as of yet. I expect that to change very soon.

Those most vulnerable to Hawke and Mortensen making moves are probably Willem Dafoe (CBS Films has At Eternity’s Gate and have only had one Oscar hit – Hell or High Water), Brad Pitt in Ad Astra (a film that could go either way) and Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody (his performance is going to have to overshadow two big controversies – the potential straight-washing of his Freddie Mercury and Bryan Singer retaining directing credit for the film).

Here are my predictions in Best Actor for June 19, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (June)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (June)