2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (November)

As with Best Director, Black Panther makes a move this month – up four spots all the way into the top 5. 

The huge misfire of the Academy’s rushed ‘Popular Film’ Oscar category, that was quickly tabled after a substantial backlash, I think has given way to what most good Oscar pundits were already predicting – that Disney’s Black Panther will be a history-making Best Picture nominee. I think it will be hard to dismiss the year’s highest grossing film that also has stellar reviews and is in line for potentially double-digit nominations. Some may think its road will be tough to get enough #1 votes to land on the final ballot but voters can easily send a message that this is the right film, right now and push it through. 

ROMA, A Star Is Born and If Beale Street Could Talk hold their spots at #1, #2 and #3, respectively. With so much happening in the next few weeks – National Board of Review, New York Film Critics, Los Angeles Film Critics, and SAG and Globe noms, the race could look very different very soon.

Universal takes a beating with First Man continuing to fall but also with Green Book. The film won numerous film festival audience awards (including the biggest one, Toronto) and earned an A+ CinemaScore but so far has stumbled out of the box office gate. The decision to move up the release by five days for a 25-theater limited run seemed like a good one; one that would find a super strong per screen average to start off its box office run. But, that didn’t happen and its $12K PTA take was nothing to write home about. It went wide on the 21st to ok numbers, nothing like what I was expecting (I waaaay overestimated it) for something routinely called a crowdpleaser. But, you can’t be a crowdpleaser if you don’t have the crowds. Part of what is happening for the film is similar to what happened with last year’s TIFF Audience Award winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. That film was extremely well reviewed, won the award and then a wider base of critics and reviewers, namely people of color, saw it and found plenty to dislike about it. That didn’t phase audiences or voters as the film scored well at the box office and steamrolled its Best Actress and Supporting Actor wins all season. With Green Book, there is a similar stance in that the film is a tone-deaf throwback. Some critics and pundits have taken it upon themselves to deflect that criticism in earnest. It’s hard to tell if the film can bounce back and be a holiday hit or run out of gas before we even hit December. 

Mary Poppins Returns floats from the Other Contenders to Next Up this month.

Here are my predictions for Best Picture on November 23, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/re-entry

1. ROMA (Netflix – 11/21 limited theatrical, 12/14 streaming)
2. A Star is Born (Warner Bros – 10/5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna – 12/14)
4. Black Panther (Disney – 2/16)
5. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight – 11/23)
6. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features – 8/10)
7. Widows (20th Century Fox – 11/16)
8. Green Book (Universal – 11/16)
9. Vice (Annapurna – 12/25)
10. First Man (Universal – 10/12)

NEXT UP

Boy Erased (Focus Features – 11/2)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight – 10/19)
Cold War (Amazon – 12/21)
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros – 8/17)
Destroyer (Annapurna – 12/25)
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney – 12/19)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Capharnaüm (Sony Classics – 12/14)
First Reformed (A24 – 5/18)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features – 12/7)
The Mule (Warner Bros – 12/14)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features – 12/25)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SOUND EDITING and SOUND MIXING (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING and VISUAL EFFECTS

2019 Oscar Predictions: PRODUCTION DESIGN and COSTUME DESIGN (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: FILM EDITING and CINEMATOGRAPHY (November

2019 Oscar Predictions: ORIGINAL SCORE and ORIGINAL SONG (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS  (November)