While the other three acting categories seem pretty close to as locked as possible, Supporting Actress remains not so much a mystery but a real nail-biting race.
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) pulled of two surprise wins last month when she took both the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice after being snubbed at the Screen Actors Guild against competition like Amy Adams (Vice), Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite). Immediately after the Globes the BAFTA noms hit and King was snubbed once again. Things started looking tough for King as her path started mirroring Sylvester Stallone in Creed a few years ago (he also won the Globe and CC while being snubbed at SAG and BAFTA).
Then a miracle happened. SAG opted for non-Oscar nominee Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) and threw the race into a free for all. It was just the gift King needed to give her an edge. After all, if Adams, Stone or Weisz (who have all four major precursors) couldn’t beat a non-Oscar nominated performance, what would propel them to an Oscar win? King is at a disadvantage compared to her four competitors as they are all in Best Picture nominees that are the top three nominated films. Not only that but they all have co-stars nominated in Best Actor or Best Actress. That will be probably make their screeners a higher priority than Beale Street unless those voters see King’s nomination as a reason to bump it up the pile. King completely dominated the critics awards, winning nearly 30 including all the majors – LAFCA, NYFCC and NSFC. She is a widely respected, three-time Emmy winning actress who’s been in the business for over thirty years. She’s worked with everyone, has a great reputation (the main component that separates her from Stallone and that comparison) and is, in my estimation, still the frontrunner. Albeit a shaky one.
BAFTA was last weekend and as expected by most, Rachel Weisz won and The Favourite did extremely well. In years where two supporting actors or actresses from the same film are nominated, one usually breaks out ahead. That is Weisz in this case and she will be a formidable opponent to King. Does being a previous Oscar winner (Best Supporting Actress – 2005’s The Constant Gardener) on her first nomination since that win help her or hurt her? If Beale Street Could Talk debuted in the UK this last weekend as well and King was not only there but at BAFTA presenting. A very shrewd move by Annapurna to keep King at the forefront as Oscar voting kicks off today.
But don’t for a moment dismiss the biggest shock of the season and that’s the nomination for Roma‘s Marina de Tavira. de Tavira came in with literally nothing. No precursors, no critics’ mentions. Nothing. There’s simply never been anything like it in the modern era, no precedent. She is the precedent. It’s a testament to the passion of her performance that the actor’s branch felt compelled to nominate her over SAG, Golden Globe and BAFTA nominees like Blunt, Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) and Claire Foy (First Man). We could be looking at a Marisa Tomei or Marcia Gay Harden out of left field win.
Here are my ranked 2019 Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actress for February 12, 2019.
|1. Regina King – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (BFCA, GG)|
|2. Rachel Weisz – THE FAVOURITE (BAFTA)|
|3. Marina de Tavira – ROMA|
|4. Emma Stone – THE FAVOURITE|
|5. Amy Adams – VICE|
|BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards|
|BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)|
|GG – Golden Globe|
|Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards|