2019 Oscar Predictions: ORIGINAL SCORE and ORIGINAL SONG (December)

With the reveal of the shortlists in Original Score and Original Song yesterday (the first in these categories since 1979), did predicting get easier or more difficult?

In Original Score, there were two big surprise omissions – Michael Giacchino’s Incredibles 2 and Hans Zimmer’s Widows. Both Oscar-winning composers were expected to show up on the 15-film shortlist. Instead, Avengers: Infinity War and Crazy Rich Asians (great score) found their way on it. So did Annihilation from Geoff Barrow and Ben Salisbury. 

A quick reminder that the scores for Green Book and Mandy were previously deemed ineligible and that The Favourite, ROMA and A Star Is Born do not have original scores.

Here are my 2019 Oscar Predictions in Original Score for December 18, 2018.

Green – moves up Red – moves down  Blue – debut/re-entry

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA)
2. First Man (BFCA, GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (BFCA, GG)
4. Black Panther (BFCA, GG)
5. Isle of Dogs (BFCA, GG)

6. BlacKkKlansman
7. A Quiet Place (GG)
8. Suspiria
9. Vice
10. Annihilation
11. Crazy Rich Asians
12. The Death of Stalin
13. Avengers: Infinity War
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
15. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Original Song gave us two songs from Mary Poppins Returns, surprise additions from Sorry to Bother You and Beautiful Boy and some pretty big snubs for Free Solo, A Private War and On the Basis of Sex. 

The snub for Mary Poppins Returns at the Golden Globes gives me some pause and I’m not sure if Troye Sivan (“Revelation,” Boy Erased) is going to be able to push through the talent pool that’s at the top of the list. If it weren’t for Diane Warren (“I’ll Fight” from RBG) I’d have him in but I would never count the 9-time Oscar nominee at this point. But does anything really matter when “Shallow” from A Star Is Born is going to win?

Here are my 2019 Oscar Predictions in Original Song for December 18, 2018.

Green – moves up Red – moves down  Blue – debut/re-entry

1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (BFCA, GG)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (BFCA, GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (BFCA)
4. RBG, “I’ll Fight” (BFCA)
5. Dumplin,’ “Girl in the Movies” (BFCA, GG)

6. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (GG)
7. Mary Poppins Returns, “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (BFCA)
8. Widows, “The Big Unknown”
9. Quincy, “Keep Reachin'”
10. Sorry to Bother You, “OYAHYTT”
11. Beautiful Boy, “Treasure”
12. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
13. The Hate U Give, “We Won’t Move”
14. Ralph Breaks the Internet, “A Place Called the Slaughter Race”
15. Suspiria, “Suspirium”