Timothée Chalamet was already in a good position for an ‘afterglow’ nomination post-Call Me By Your Name and the first look of him in Amazon’s Beautiful Boy released last week of the Oscar-nominated actor with fellow Oscar nominee Steve Carell only solidified that. Chalamet holds on to the top spot this month with ease. I expect him to stay there through summer and fall festival announcements. He could go all the way.
Sam Rockwell, fresh off his Oscar win in this category earlier this year (for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), should easily score his second nomination playing former president George W. Bush in Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic Backseat. I think a lot would have to go wrong with this film for Rockwell (and co-stars Christian Bale and Amy Adams) to miss out here. He moves up two spots to #2.
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) each drop just a bit but stay in the top 5. Daniel Kaluuya (Widows), like Chalamet, looks to parlay his Best Actor Oscar nomination last season (for Get Out) into a Supporting Actor nom this season. Although his film features a wealth of potential supporting actor contenders, Kaluuya has the juiciest role and the coupled with his role in the massive blockbuster Black Panther, is the most buzzed about actor in his film. He moves up into the top 5.
Adam Driver sees a move up as well, just outside the top 5 for his turn in BlacKkKlansman, which just won the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival (read my four-star review here). He actually stands a better chance than that of the film’s lead, John David Washington, does in his category. Although the optics might seem problematic for a white actor being potentially the only nomination for a Spike Lee race-themed film, don’t forget that’s exactly what happened when Danny Aeillo was the only nominee for Lee’s Do the Right Thing back in 1989. Arguably, the optics then were not what they are now.
Another move up is Sam Elliott. He joins his A Star Is Born co-stars Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga as making strides towards Oscar glory and to his first career nomination.
Here are my predictions for Supporting Actor for May 24, 2018.
Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut
| 1. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy |
| 2. Sam Rockwell – Backseat |
| 3. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk |
| 4. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
| 5. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows |
| 6. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman |
| 7. Kyle Chandler – First Man |
| 8. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born |
| 9. Jeff Bridges – Bad Times at the El Royale |
| 10. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther |
| NEXT UP |
| Mahershala Ali – Green Book |
| Steve Carell – Backseat |
| Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex |
| Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate |
| Alex Wolff – Hereditary |
| OTHER CONTENDERS |
| Casey Affleck – Old Man and the Gun |
| Joe Alwyn – Boy Erased |
| Jon Bernthal – First Man |
| Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete |
| Russell Crowe – Boy Erased |
| Robert Duvall – Widows |
| Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased |
| Colin Firth – Kursk |
| Robert Forester – What They Had |
| Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman |
| Michael Greyeyes – Woman Walks Ahead |
| Jake Gyllenhaal – The Sisters Brothers |
| Lucas Hedges – Mid 90s |
| André Holland – Widows |
| Samuel L. Jackson – Life Itself |
| Aaron Taylor Johnson – Outlaw King |
| Tommy Lee Jones – Ad Astra |
| Irrfan Khan – Puzzle |
| Ben Kingsley – Operation Finale |
| Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick |
| Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns |
| Liam Neeson – Widows |
| Chris O’Dowd – Juliet, Naked |
| Guy Pearce – The Catcher Was a Spy |
| Jonathan Pryce – The Man Who Killed Don Quixote |
| Sam Rockwell – Woman Walks Ahead |
| Mark Ruffalo – Newsflash |
| Matthias Schoenaerts – Kursk |
| Michael Shannon – What They Had |
| J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner |
| Alexander Skarsgård – The Hummingbird Project |
| Sebastian Stan – Destroyer |
| Corey Stoll – First Man |
| Donald Sutherland – Ad Astra |
| David Tennant – Mary Queen of Scots |
| Courtney B. Vance – Ben is Back |
| Vince Vaughn – Fighting with My Family |
| Dominic West – Colette |
| Forest Whitaker – Burden |
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (May)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (May)
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