Academy Award winner Mahershala Ali not only holds onto his #1 spot, he’s starting to look like a lock. Along with the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award win last month, Green Book just won another Audience Award, from the Mill Valley Film Festival, this week. He is looking very good for a 2nd Oscar at this point.
The majority of the top 10 sees a lot of movement including Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) swapping spots at #2 and #3. While I still feel Chalamet will earn a nomination and being a co-lead boosts his chances even more (as does being fresh of a nomination last year), Grant’s film edges out Chalamet’s in terms of reviews. We’ll see if that’s a good enough theory in the coming months.
Sam Elliott continues to rise and stops this month at #4. A Star Is Born is a critical and box office juggernaut at this point and Elliott may very well claim a ‘never nominated veteran’ spot.
Oscar nominee Daniel Kaluuya also inches up, with his villainy from Widows making him a formidable contender. Another formidable villain is Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther. Jordan’s Killmonger has a larger character with a strong arc that could put him in the top five over Kaluuya’s less nuanced character.
Word of mouth says that Steve Carell has better, and more, material than Sam Rockwell in Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney bio Vice and he moves up into the top 10 and Rockwell drops out of it.
Lin-Manuel Miranda moves into the Next Up section for the first time with Mary Poppins Returns.
Big news this month was that Stephan James would be pushed Lead for If Beale Street Could Talk, which opens the door for Brian Tyree Henry. Henry’s single sequence in the film is a standout and even though he has a larger supporting role in Widows, I feel like it’s Widows that will (or could) boost him for Beale Street.
More newcomers this month include Bradley Cooper and Michael Peña for Clint Eastwood’s The Mule, Russell Hornsby for The Hate U Give and Hugh Grant for Paddington 2, the latter of which feels like an internet wish more than a reality (listen to Kristy Puchko and me talk about it on the most recent podcast) but he got a BAFTA nomination for it so stranger things have happened.
With Ad Astra moving to next summer, Donald Sutherland and Tommy Lee Jones are gone entirely.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actor for October 17th, 2018.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut
1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
3. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
5. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)
6. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (Walt Disney)
7. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
8. Steve Carell – Vice (Annapurna)
9. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
10. Harry Belafonte – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Bradley Cooper – The Mule (Warner Bros)
Russell Crowe – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Sam Rockwell – Vice (Annapurna)
Jeff Bridges – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Hugh Grant – Paddington 2 (Warner Bros)
Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Russell Hornsby – The Hate U Give (20th Century Fox)
Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate (CBS Films)
Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick (Columbia Pictures)
Michael Peña – The Mule (Warner Bros)
Michael Shannon – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner (Sony)
Sebastian Stan – Destroyer (Annapurna)
David Tennant – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
Alex Wolff – Hereditary (A24)