2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (September) – Mahershala Ali is in the driver’s seat

The People’s Choice Award win for Green Book at the Toronto International Film Festival this weekend was a huge boost for the film but most of all for Mahershala Ali, who bounds from #7 to the top spot. The Academy Award winner finds himself in the pole position in the Supporting Actor race for September and could easily go the distance once again.

That drops Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) down a spot to #2 but don’t count him out. Both he and Ali will benefit from essentially being co-leads of their films that are almost assuredly going to be pushed here.

Richard E. Grant got great reviews for Can You Ever Forgive Me? from Telluride and Toronto and he holds onto his #3 spot. Stephan James keeps his top 5 berth for If Beale Street Could Talk, which world premiered at TIFF and was the People’s Choice Award 1st runner-up.

Sam Rockwell could still translate his new Oscar win into another nomination (for Adam McKay’s Vice as George W. Bush) but I keep hearing that Steve Carell is the scene-stealer as Donald Rumsfeld. It would be interesting to see that happen and for Carell to go up against his movie son Chalamet in the same category. I’m keeping him in the Next Up category for now (a rise from Other Contenders), especially since there isn’t anything to really go on.

Also rising this month is Daniel Kaluuya in Widows. After the film’s world premiere at Toronto, raves for his pure evil villain, especially in light of his Oscar-nominated turn in Get Out last year, puts him in a good spot for an afterglow nom.

Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) stays put at #8 although I see a lot of other Oscar prognosticators with him in their top 5 as a ‘veteran who’s never been nominated.’ I get that, and I might be underestimating him here. His film is off the charts huge after Venice and Toronto and although he’s got a pretty small part he could be scooped up in a nomination total sweep.

The big debut this month is Nicholas Hoult in The Favourite. It’s hard to think the film would be able to score four acting nominations but I’m keeping an eye out for Hoult as the male standout of the very female-centric film.

Falling this month are former top 5 stalwart Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman and J.K. Simmons for The Front Runner, which flopped in its Telluride and Toronto showings.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actor for September 17th, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
2. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Sam Rockwell – Vice (Annapurna)
5. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)

6. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)
7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (Walt Disney)
8. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
9. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
10. Harry Belafonte – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

NEXT UP
Steve Carell – Vice (Annapurna)
Russell Crowe – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
Jonathan Pryce – The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics)

OTHER CONTENDERS
Riz Ahmed – The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Jeff Bridges – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Jake Gyllenhaal – The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Lucas Hedges – Mid 90s (A24)
Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate (CBS Films)
Tommy Lee Jones – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick (Columbia Pictures)
Liam Neeson – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Michael Shannon – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner (Sony)
Sebastian Stan – Destroyer (Annapurna)
Donald Sutherland – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Courtney B. Vance – Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Alex Wolff – Hereditary (A24)